Found a good "Future US Civil War" link? Let Us Know!
I can't believe that no one is writing articles on the possibility of future civil wars in America!
Because of the popularity of the 1860's American Civil War, it's extremely difficult to find relevant links. If you
stumble across one -
PLEASE LET US KNOW! Here are the very few articles that we could find...
Now it's personal Perhaps when historians look back on the
origins of the Second American Civil War they'll unearth this
Ted Rall column, giving instructions to New Yorkers about how to
treat the visiting delegates for the Republican National
Convention...Example of the genesis for a possible Republocrat vs.
Democlican war.
History's End: The Second American Civil War-Part Two This leads me
to the true topic of this series: the possibility of a future Civil War in
the United States. This is something that has been covered before,
particularly by James Davidson Hunter, in his book Before the Shooting
Begins. For a review of that book try this. So I am not broaching
new ground here. However, I do feel that it is a subject that receives
insufficient attention, and that is something that I intend to correct. I
will try and determine what the chances of a new Civil War are, as well as
its scope and potential for destruction. I will also try and determine who
might be the two or more different sides in this conflict, as that is
something that isn't necessarily clear at first sight.
The Future of the Ideological Civil War Within the West Nearly a
year before the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the
Pentagon, wire service stories gave us a preview of the transnational
politics of the future. It was reported on October 24, 2000, that in
preparation for the UN Conference Against Racism, about 50 American
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) sent a formal letter to UN Human Rights
Commissioner Mary Robinson calling on the UN “to hold the United States
accountable for the intractable and persistent problem of discrimination”
that “men and women of color face at the hands of the US criminal justice
system” (Goodman, 2000).
USA [PDF] The United States has had no civil war in the post WWII
period. This absence of a civil war onset is consistent with our statistical
model, which predicts that it would have been very unlikely for the United
States to have suffered from a civil war. In fact, given the mean
probability for a civil war in the U.S., a civil war would be a once in
425-year event. Despite its large population and above average percentage of
mountainous terrain, the United States’ high GDP per capita, lack of oil
exportation, and stable institutions kept the U.S.’s predicted probability
of civil war below the world average for the entire post WWII period, and
below the regional average for the period 1945 – 1999.
Global Citizen 2000 - Civil Wars
But surely civil war in the United States is unthinkable? Not at all-it has
happened at least twice in our history, during the American Revolution, when
roughly as many people supported the British as the American cause, as well
as our own Civil War. More recently, during the 1960s some of us can
remember American troops being sent into American cities to end rioting and
civil disorders. Triggers as diverse as electrical power blackouts and
police shootings routinely trigger large-scale violence every year.
Causes of world's civil wars misunderstood,
researchers say: 9/02 According
to conventional thinking, the end of the Cold War helped unleash a spate of
civil conflicts among ethnic groups whose simmering animosities had been
stifled by superpower hegemony. It was commonly accepted that ethnic and
religious diversity made countries more prone to civil war, and it was
believed that conflicts could be predicted to break out in areas with the
strongest ethnic or political grievances. But research on the causes of
civil wars by political scientists David Laitin and James Fearon refutes
these popular theories.
Coming Civil Wars in Europe? » Outside The
Beltway | OTB Will Collier and
Stephen Green, reacting to reports of
rising tides of Muslim immigrants in Western Europe, envision some
worst-case scenarios...
The Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation Civil war and
related concepts such as state failure have traditionally been studied at
the level of nation states, where the nation states are either “at war” or
not, and treated as phenomena to be explained by state-level
characteristics. A cursory glance at actual civil wars, however, reveals
that violence rarely engulfs entire states, but typically occurs within a
confined area, leaving other areas within the same state at relative peace.
How To Cause A Civil War In America - Above
Top Secret Conspiracy ...
Discussion about How To Cause A Civil War In America in the Above Top Secret
website discussion forum
Military Doctrine and Counterinsurgency: A British Perspective by
GAVIN BULLOCH; From Parameters, Summer 1996, pp. 4-16.: The experience of
numerous "small wars" has provided the British army with a unique insight
into this demanding form of conflict. Service in Northern Ireland has given
the present generation of soldiers their main firsthand source of basic
experience at the tactical level, but this also tends to constrain military
thinking on the subject because of the national context and political
connotations. There are of course many lessons to be learned because of the
similarities between the campaign in Northern Ireland, which is designated
as Military Aid to the Civil Authorities (MACA)[1] and those
counterinsurgency campaigns which may be conducted elsewhere. But there are
also significant differences. Tactics such as jungle patrolling and convoy
anti-ambush drills--which from the perspective of Northern Ireland seem to
be relics of a colonial past--may be very relevant in a different
operational setting...
1800's MORMON PROPHECIES ABOUT US & FUTURE CIVIL WARS ...what about
the American nation. [The past Civil War] was nothing, compared to
that which will eventually devastate [America]. ...Do you wish me to
describe it? I will do so. It will be a war of neighborhood against
neighborhood, city against city, town against town, county against county,
state against state, and they will go forth, destroying and being destroyed
and manufacturing will, in a great measure, cease, for a time among the
American nation. Why? Because in these terrible wars, they will not be
privileged to manufacture, there will be too much bloodshed, too much
mobocracy, too much going forth in bands and destroying and pillaging the
land to suffer people to pursue any local vocation with any degree of
safety...
American Civil Defense Association, The
Nonprofit association wants citizens
to prepare themselves for disasters. Read about its mission and membership.
Speculations On The Causes Of The "Culture Wars" A personal essay in
hypertext by Scott Bidstrup. Even a casual observer of the American culture
cannot help but be impressed by the increasing degree of polarization not
only of American politics, but of cultural values and even lifestyles and
attitudes. There seems to be an endless array of conflict - not just minor
differences of opinion, but major conflict - even resulting in violence and
murder. The results seem to be applauded or abhorred - depending on whose
side you are on. The outcome of this conflict could not be more important -
it is nothing less than the survival of Western civilization. This is
because the roots of this conflict run far deeper than most people realize,
and its consequences far more serious.
Civil Wars This is a subscription publication, but you can
get a
Free Sample Copy. The journal has a broad academic and intellectual
remit designed to be both multi and interdisciplinary. Civil Wars brings
together academic pieces on all aspects of civil wars, including pieces on
key topics such as why state building can degenerate into civil war, how
ethnic conflict turns into civil war, the ethics of intervention and the
resource implications of such conflicts but also welcomes historical work on
conflicts such as the US, Spanish or Chinese civil wars. Attention is also
paid to the questions of why civil wars prove so intractable.
Social, economic and political change
This site list links to information about long term changes in political,
economic and social systems at the national and international level. This
site links to sites with data, theory, research, course syllabi, and other
useful information. The site also includes my review of theories of change
(in progress).
What Do We Know About Natural Resources and Civil War ...
[PDF] by Michael Ross. Since the late 1990s there
has been a flood of research on natural resources and civil war. I review 14
recent cross-national econometric studies, and many qualitative studies,
that cast light on the relationship between natural resources and civil war.
I suggest that collectively they imply four underlying regularities: first,
oil increases the likelihood of conflict, particularly separatist conflict;
second, “lootable” commodities like gemstones and drugs do not make conflict
more likely to begin, but they tend to lengthen existing conflicts; third,
there is no apparent link between legal agricultural commodities and civil
war; and finally, the association between primary commodities – a broad
category that includes both oil and agricultural goods – and the onset of
civil war is not robust. In the first section I discuss the evidence for
these four regularities, and examine some theoretical arguments that could
explain them. In the second section I suggest that some of the remaining
inconsistencies among the econometric studies may be caused by differences
in the ways they code civil wars, and cope with missing data. In the third
and final section highlight some further aspects of the resource-civil war
relationship that remain poorly-understood.
Civil Wars Research By
James C. Murdoch and Todd
Sandler
"Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers." (This is the
Journal of Conflict Resolution version.) (ZIP file)
"Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers: Version 1." (This
is the version that is referenced in the Journal of Conflict Resolution
article.) (ZIP file)
Table A.1. Civil War Raw Data. (Word document)
Table A.2. Preliminary Model 1 Regressions. (Word document)
Table A.3. Regressions. Fixed-Effects Estimates of the Six-Period Model.
(Word document)
Table 5. Model 3 Regressions. Fixed-Effects Estimates of the Six-Period
Model. (Word document)
ETHNICITY, POLITICAL SYSTEMS AND CIVIL WARS[PDF] This paper
analyzes the effect of ethnic division on civil war and the role of
political systems in preventing these conflicts. First we show the
importance of religious polarization and animist diversity in explaining the
incidence of ethnic civil war. We find that religious differences are a
social cleavage more important than linguistic differences when we analyze
the development of a civil war. Second we find that being a consociational
democracies significantly reduces the incidence of ethnic civil war.
AlternateHistory.com Discussion Board -
Future Civil Wars in the West
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