Not Directly in the Path of Concentrated
[early] Fallout
Yes, the threat of nuclear war - limited or full scale - still exists,
and therefore must be taken into consideration. The two counties under
consideration are favorably situated to withstand, easily, the aftermath
of a limited confrontation. In the event of an all-out war, all bets are
off no matter where you live. There's no telling what kind of havoc that
sort of thing might trigger in global weather and fault/volcanic
activity. Having crunched the numbers and studied the reports however, I
think we'll do better than most, up here.
The entire Front Range of Colorado (east of the Continental Divide) is a
military and industrial target. While the millions of lives that would
be lost is regrettable, the elimination of the greatest concentration of
nearby nuclear refugees is somewhat beneficial to the survival of those
west of the Continental Divide. Too, the radioactive barrier from north
of Cheyenne, WY to the southern Colorado border (along the I-25
corridor) would effectively halt all westbound travel into the state.
All major population centers to the west of Colorado are either primary
or secondary multiple strike targets.
With less than a full days notice, the counties should remain at normal
levels of residents and visitors, depending upon the time of year. Many
of the visitors may, in fact, attempt to leave the area in the misguided
hope of reaching loved ones before a strike. The roadways, however, will
not remain viable in a nuclear panic. There are just too many people on
the Front Range with no clue (or plan) regarding mass evacuation of the
cities.
The Nature of Fallout
The Threat of Fallout: (from: "The Effects
of Nuclear Weapons"; Compiled and edited by Samuel Glasstone and Philip
J. Dolan; Third Edition; Prepared and published by the UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE and the ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
ADMINISTRATION)
... it is convenient to consider the fallout in two parts, namely, early and delayed.
Early (or local) fallout is defined as that which reaches the ground
during the first 14 hours following a nuclear explosion. The
early fallout from surface, subsurface, or low air bursts can produce
radioactive contamination over large areas and can represent an
immediate biological hazard.
Delayed (or long range) fallout, which is that
reaching the ground after the first day, consists of very fine,
invisible particles which settle in low concentrations over a
considerable portion of the earth's surface. The radiation from
the fission products and other substances is
greatly reduced as a result of radioactive decay during the long
time the delayed fallout remains suspended in the atmosphere.
Consequently, the radiations from most of the
delayed fallout pose no immediate danger to health,, although
there may be a long-term hazard.
In the case of an air burst, particularly when the fireball is well
above the earth's surface, a fairly sharp distinction can be made
between the initial nuclear radiation and the residual radiation. The
reason is that, by the end of a minute, essentially all of the residues,
in the form of very small particles, will have risen to such a height
that the nuclear radiations no longer reach the ground in significant
amounts. Subsequently, the fine particles are widely dispersed in the
atmosphere and descend to earth very slowly.
With surface and, especially, subsurface explosions, or low air bursts
in weather involving precipitation the demarcation between initial and
residual nuclear radiations is not as definite. Some of the radiations
from the weapon residues will be within range of the earth's surface at
all times, so that the initial and residual categories merge
continuously into one another. For very deep underground and underwater
bursts the initial gamma rays and neutrons produced in the fission or
fusion process may be ignored since they are absorbed by the surrounding
medium. The residual radiations, from fission products and from
radioactive species produced by neutron interaction, are then the only
kind of nuclear radiations that need be considered. In a surface burst,
however, both initial and residual nuclear radiations must be taken into
account.
EARLY FALLOUT
The radiological characteristics of the early fallout from a nuclear
weapon are those of the fission products and any induced activity
produced. The relative importance of these two sources of residual
radiation depends upon the percentage of the total yield that is due to
fission, and other factors mentioned. There are, however, two additional
factors, namely, fractionation and salting, which may affect the
activity of the early fallout.
As the fireball cools, the fission products and other vapors are
gradually condensed on such soil and other particles as are sucked up
from below while the fireball rises in the air. For detonations over
land, where the particles consist mainly of soil minerals, the fission
product vapors condense onto both solid and molten soil particles and
also onto other particles that may be present. In addition, the vapors
of the fission products may condense with vapors of other substances to
form mixed solid particles of small size. In the course of these
processes, the composition of the fission products will change, apart
from the direct effects of radioactive decay. This change in composition
is called "fractionation." The occurrence of fractionation is shown, for
example, by the fact that in a land surface burst the larger particles,
which fall out of the fireball at early times and are found near ground
zero, have different radiological properties from the smaller particles
that leave the radioactive cloud at later times and reach the ground
some distance downwind.
FALLOUT DISTRIBUTION IN LAND SURFACE BURSTS
DISTRIBUTION OF CONTAMINATION
More is known about the fallout from land surface and near-surface
bursts than for other types of explosions. The proportion of the total
radioactivity of the weapon residues that is present in the early
fallout, sometimes called the "early fallout fraction, "varies from one
test explosion to another." For land surface bursts the early fallout
fraction, which depends on the nature of the surface material, has been
estimated to range from 40 to 70 percent. Values somewhat higher than
this are expected for shallow underground bursts. For water surface
bursts, however, the fraction is generally lower, in the neighborhood of
20 to 30 percent. Some variability is expected in the fallout fraction
for a given type of burst due to variations in environmental and
meteorological conditions. Nevertheless, it will be assumed here that
60 percent of the total radioactivity from a
land surface burst weapon will be in the early fallout. The remainder
will contribute to the delayed fallout, most
of which undergoes substantial radioactive decay and, hence, decreases
in activity before it eventually reaches the ground many hundreds or
thousands of miles away.
The distribution on the ground of the activity from the early fallout,
i.e., the "fallout pattern," even for similar nuclear yields, also shows
great variability. In addition to the effect of wind, such factors as
the dimensions of the radioactive cloud, the distribution of
radioactivity within the mushroom head, and the range of particle sizes
contribute to the uncertainty in attempts to predict the fallout
pattern.
AREA OF CONTAMINATION
The largest particles fall to the ground from the radioactive cloud and
stem shortly after the explosion and hence are found within a short
distance of surface zero. Smaller particles, on the other hand, will
require many hours to fall to earth. During this period they may be
carried hundreds of miles from the burst point by the prevailing winds.
The very smallest particles have no appreciable rate of fall and so they
may circle the earth many times before reaching the ground, generally in
precipitation with rain or snow. The fact that smaller particles from
the radioactive cloud may reach the ground at considerable distances
from the explosion means that fallout from a surface burst can produce
serious contamination far beyond the range of other effects, such as
blast, shock, thermal radiation, and initial nuclear radiation. It is
true that the longer the cloud particles remain suspended in the air,
the lower will be their activity when they reach the ground. However,
the total quantity of contaminated material produced by the surface
burst of a megaton weapon with a high fission yield is so large that
fallout may continue to arrive in hazardous concentrations up to perhaps
24 hours after the burst. Radioactive contamination from a single
detonation may thus affect vast areas and so fallout must be regarded as
one of the major effects of nuclear weapons.
Nuclear Targets in the United States
FEMA map of nuclear targets based on known defense, value of target,
population, and military sites. The red outline is the approximate
location of Summit & Grand Counties. You
will note that there are NO major targets to the west until reaching
California. The targets to the north, south and east are of no
real fallout concern. The California strikes will almost certainly
precipitate most (if not all) of their early (heavy) radioactive fallout
long before reaching the western Colorado border.
Nuclear Targets in Colorado
~ Taken from:
Nuclear Attack Planning Base, Appendix A - 1990; Federal Emergency Management
Agency; April 1987
Again, the red outline indicates the Summit & Grand counties. I really
don't understand the targeting of Craig. The only obvious reason might
be either coal production or the relatively minor NSEW crossroads of
State Hwy 13 and US Hwy 40. Then again, this map is a reflection of
"potential" targets in a full-scale, all out nuclear conflict. I doubt
even Grand Junction would receive a nuke, regardless of the size of the
confrontation. Both of these western targets must be of the lowest
priority and would only be hit by an enemy who had no designs on taking
over or utilizing America's natural resources. In fact, aside from this
map, I can find no definitive targeting reason to include Craig and
Grand Junction.
COLORADO Military War Fighting Establishments:
These potential (probable) targets are all on the Front Range (east of
the Continental Divide).
1. US Space Command
250 S. Peterson Blvd- #116
Peterson AFB, Colorado Springs, Colorado 80914 USA
Website: http://www.spacecom.mil
2. NORAD- Cheyenne Mountain Operations Center
1 NORAD Rd, Cheyenne Mountain AFB
Colorado Springs, Colorado 80914 USA
Website: http://www.cheyennemountain.af.mil
3. NORAD- North American Aerospace Defense Command
250 S. Peterson Blvd- #116 Peterson AFB, Colorado Springs, Colorado
80914 USA
Website: http://www.norad.mil
4. NorthCom
US Northern Command
250 Vandenberg, Suite B016
Peterson AFB, Colorado 80914 USA
Website: http://www.northcom.mil
5. Peterson Air Force Base
Colorado Springs, Colorado 80914 USA
Website:http://www.spacecom.af.mil
6. United States Air Force Academy
Colorado Springs, Colorado 80840 USA
Website: http://usafa.af.mil
7. Schriever Air Force Base/ Space Warfare Center
300 O'Nally Ave- #24, Colorado Springs, Colorado 80912 USA
Website: http://www.schriever.af.mil
8. Air Force Space Command
150 Vandenburg St- #1105
Peterson AFB, Colorado Springs, Colorado 80914 USA
Website: http://www.spacecom.af.mil/hqafspc
9. Buckley Air Force Base
460th Air Base Wing, Air Force Space Command
Aurora, Colorado 80011 USA
Website: http://www.buckley.af.mil
10. Fort Carson Headquarters
Fort Carson, Colorado 80913 USA
Website:http://www.carson.army.mil
Risks and Hazards-State by State [NOTICE:
This book was discontinued and taken off the publications list of FEMA
because of supposedly outdated information regarding targeting by our
enemies. You will only find copies (if at all) in government libraries,
or rarely in used book stores.]
Description of book: A complete
book with all natural and manmade hazards and hazard zones overlaying
maps of the US. Includes all types of weather threats, including
tornado, hurricane, earthquake, tsunami, volcano, snow and extreme cold,
and even includes potential Nuclear targets for the entire US, as well
as possible fallout patterns based on theoretical attacks based on
shifting wind patterns. Each state has its own map showing details for
each weather threat, as well as nuclear targets detailed down to the
county. Also shows nuclear plants, operating or planned in each state.
Click either of these links to see a sample of the maps you will find
for EACH state of the U.S. (a) Alabama Nuclear Targets (b) Alabama
Natural/Manmade Threat Zones There are also maps for the entire US using
similar layouts and color breakdowns. Date of Copyright/Printing: 1990
Author/Gov.Order Number: FEMA
Number of Pages: 130
FEMA Item Number: 8-0897
COLORADO
Primary:
Colorado Springs (NORAD HQ.), Warren AFB Complex (Minuteman missiles,
area within a line connecting Grover, Briggsdale, Fort Morgan, Sedgwick,
and along state line to Grover again), Fort Carson.
Secondary:
Denver, Pueblo
Tertiary:
Aurora, Boulder, Cheraw, Greeley, Pueblo-Boone area, Broomfield, Rocky
Flats (targer is 10 miles west of Sedalia).
All of these targets are east of the Continental Divide.
Nuclear Fallout Risk in Colorado
~ Taken from: Nuclear Attack Planning Base, Appendix
B - 1990; Federal Emergency Management
Agency; April 1987
This map seems to agree with my comments regarding Craig and Grand
Junction. While Summit and Grand counties lie in the yellow "Medium
Risk" zone, this does not take into effect the ring of protective
mountains or the convection from the inhabitable valleys.
The Criteria List - How the 2 Counties
Stack Up (follow links to detailed information)
Membership Goals:
Our target goals for voting age self-reliant survivalist members:
Grand County: 13,406 population x 15% = 2,011 members
Summit County: 28,296 population x 15% = 4,245 members
Total voting age members wanted: 6,256,
although half that would make a BIG difference to the counties.
If you already live in Summit or Grand Counties,
contact MEG to let us know!
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