Weather Folk-Lore. Bulletin No. 33. W. B. No. 294. Introduction. It is safe to assume that our first parents acquired weather wisdom by observing weather sequences and noting the foreshadowed effects of certain atmospheric conditions on objects animate and inanimate. We may assume further that the knowledge thus acquired was communicated to their descendants, and that it was handed down, with additions and amplifications, from generation to generation. We find in the earliest writings and in the Scriptures expressions of weather wisdom, many of which appear in collections of the popular weather sayings of to-day. Thus by assumption and deduction we know that man has ever employed inherited and acquired weather wisdom in the daily affairs of life. When flocks and herds have constituted his earthly possessions he has been prompted to lead his charges to places of safety when signs of impending storms appeared. As a navigator his interpretation of the signs of the air has, in innumerable instances, enabled him to adopt measures calculated to avert disaster to his frail craft. As an husbandman he has closely scanned the sky, the air, and the earth for signs that would indicate the weather of the coming day and season. The wisdom thus acquired has been perpetuated in the form of trite sayings or proverbs. Many of these sayings are polished gems of weather lore, others have lost their potency by transfer to foreign lands where dissimilar climatic conditions obtain, and a large proportion have been born of fancy and superstition. The object of this paper is to segregate from the mass of available data the true sayings that are applicable to the United States, and to combine the material thus collected with reports on local weather signs that have been officially and specially prepared by observers of the United States Weather Bureau. The laws that govern the distribution of the earth's atmosphere and control its phenomena necessarily produce different results on different parts of the earth's surface. The seasonal distribution of the atmosphere, as indicated by the greater, or so-called permanent, areas of high and low barometric pressure, is governed largely by the temperature of the land and water surfaces. In summer the pressure of the atmosphere is greater and its surface temperature is lower over the oceans than over the continents, and in winter the reverse of these conditions obtains. And the differences in atmospheric pressure and temperature control the seasonal directions of the winds. Similarly the smaller areas of high and low barometric pressure that appear on our daily weather maps produce the varying temperatures and winds, and, incidentally, the weather that we experience from day to day. In the United States the centers of areas of high barometric pressure generally move in a south of east direction immediately preceded by winds that blow from points between west and north, low temperature for the season, and fair weather. Areas of low barometric pressure, or general storms, usually move in a north of east direction, and the winds in their east quadrants blow from easterly or southerly points of the compass, with high temperature for the season, and precipitation in the form of rain or snow.
Chart No. I shows the distribution of atmospheric pressure and temperature, the circulation of the winds, and the general character of the weather that attends the passage of well-defined areas of high and low barometric pressure over the United States. It will be observed from the foregoing remarks and Chart No. I that wind directions, as influenced by areas of high and low barometric pressure, produce high and low temperatures, fair and foul weather, and the fact will be recognized that all true popular weather sayings of ancient origin have been coined from the utterances, born of experience, of men who have observed, without understanding the causes thereof, the first indications of approaching weather changes. References and sayings relating to wind, clouds, atmospheric pressure, temperature, and moisture, the habits and actions of animals and birds, and to plant life will in turn be briefly quoted and discussed, and reference will be made to sayings regarding times, days, and seasons, and the sun, moon, and stars. Many of the sayings quoted have been taken from Weather Proverbs, 1883, by Col. H. H. C. Dunwoody, U. S. Army, and Weather Lore, 1893, by Richard Inwards, F. R. A. S. Finally a summary, illustrated by charts, will be given of local weather signs as observed at regular stations of the Weather Bureau.
WIND. Every wind has its weather. -- Bacon. Charts II to V (click to enlarge) show, for the several seasons, the winds that usually precede the beginning of rain or snow in the United States. Weather proverbs that have been based upon observations of the wind conform to a notable degree with modern meteorological knowledge. In the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere easterly winds are proverbially rain winds and westerly winds are invariably associated with fair or clearing weather. The reason for this is apparent when the circulation of winds about areas of high barometric pressure, and areas of low barometric pressure, or general storms, is observed. The Temple of the Winds at Athens indicates the knowledge possessed by the Greeks of the weather that is associated with winds from the various points of the compass. It is a little marble octagon tower, the eight sides of which are built to face the eight principal winds, and on each side is sculptured a human figure, symbolizing the character and qualities of the particular wind it faces. The north wind, which is cold, is represented by the figure of a man warmly clad and blowing on a trumpet made out of a seashell. The northeast wind, which brought, and still brings, to the Athenians cold, snow, and sleet or hail, is figured by an old man with a severe countenance, who is rattling sling stones in a shield, expressing emblematically the noise and power of a hailstorm. The east wind, which brings to Athens rain favorable to the growth of vegetation, is expressed by the image of a young man with flowing hair and open countenance, having his looped-up mantle filled with fruit, honeycomb, and corn. The west wind is indicated by the figure of a slightly-clad and beautiful youth with his lap full of flowers. And so on with the winds from all around the compass, each has its qualities fixed in stone by its appropriate sculptured figure, and thus modern science learns from ancient poetry and art the fact that the climate of Greece has not materially changed, at any rate in respect to winds, after the lapse of about twenty centuries. When the wind is in the north, The skillful fisher goes not forth; When the wind is in the east, 'Tis good for neither man nor beast; When the wind is in the south, It blows the flies in the fish's mouth; When the wind is in the west, There it is the very best. -- Isaak Walton. The terms employed in man}r proverbs to indicate wind directions are indefinite and confusing. The term north or northerly is often indiscriminately applied to winds blowing from the north quadrants, or from a range of 180° of the compass. As a matter of fact, a variation of the wind of a few points in the compass frequently changes absolutely the character of the weather that it indicates. In the case of north or northerly winds, directions from a few points east of north indicate rain or snow and oft-times the severest storms to which a great part of the United States is subject. On the other hand, winds from points west of north generally indicate fair or clearing weather. East or easterly winds blow from the eastern quadrants, or from the 180° of the compass between north and south by way of east. From 90° of this semicircle, or from points between east and north, the winds often indicate, as before stated, our most violent storms of wind and snow or rain, while following winds from the southeast quadrant the character of the storms is less severe. South or southerly winds are, in many cases, considered as winds that blow from any part of the southern quadrants. These quadrants also cover one-half of the points of the compass, and their winds indicate weather of a very different character. Winds from the southeast quadrant are rain winds, and those from the southwest quadrant are fair-weather winds. Westerly winds, both from the northwest and the southwest quadrants, are, essentially, fair weather winds, the principal distinction between these winds being that the southwest winds are warm and the northwest winds are cold. A veering wind, fair weather; A backing wind, foul weather. If the wind back against the sun, Trust it not, for back it will run. Whether the wind backs or veers depends upon the position of the observer with reference to the approaching or passing storm. If a storm center approaching from a westerly direction passes south of the observer, the wind will back from easterly to westerly by way of north; if the storm center passes north of the observer, the wind will veer from easterly to westerly directions by way of south. When the wind is from a southerly direction and veers to westerly, fair weather will follow; when, on the contrary, it backs from southerly to easterly points, foul weather is likely to follow. The sayings regarding veering and backing winds hold good, therefore, only when the winds veer or back from southerly directions. In Texas and the Southwest when the wind shifts, with strength, during a drought, expect rain. In the West and Southwest when brisk winds from the south continue for a day or more, expect a "norther." Over a great part of the United States a steady and strong south-to-east wind will bring rain within thirty-six hours. Easterly winds are proverbially bringers of rain, and when they blow from the northeast quadrant in winter heavy snow is likely to be followed by severe cold. When, during a storm, the wind shifts from the east to the west quadrants, clearing weather will soon follow. When the wind is from points between west and north and the temperature falls to 40° or below, frost will probably occur. The strength of the wind and the severity of storms depends upon barometric conditions. Westerly winds (southwest to northwest) are fair-weather winds. WEST INDIAN HURRICANES. During the late summer and early fall months hurricanes occasionally develop in the tropical regions of the Atlantic, near the southern edge of the northeast trade winds, and move westward over or near the West Indies into the Gulf of Mexico or to the southern coasts of the United States. Some of these storms recurve northwestward and then northeastward near the Atlantic coast of the United States, and others recurve northward over the Gulf of Mexico. West Indian hurricanes are the most violent and destructive storms that visit the eastern part of the United States. Happily, their visits to our coasts are not frequent; and their visitations to any individual island of the Windward West Indian group, which lies in the most frequented path of hurricanes, are on an average limited to about one in fifteen to twenty years. As the tropical storms of the Atlantic move from east to west, the winds that indicate their approach necessarily differ from those that are noted in advance of continental storms of the middle latitudes that move from west to east. In the tropical and subtropical regions of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico the approach of a hurricane from the eastward is indicated by north to northwest winds, which increase in force as the vortex of the storm approaches. The shift of the winds depends upon whether the center of the storm passes south or north of the observer. If it passes to the southward, the wind goes from northerly to easterly and southerly; if it passes to the northward, the wind goes from northerly to southerly by way of west. West Indian hurricanes are preceded one to two days by barometer rising slowly above the normal and an unusually clear, cool atmosphere. These conditions are followed by a fall in the barometer and, generally, by a greasy-looking halo around the sun or moon, and by high cirrus or cirrostratus clouds that are projected in advance of the vortex of the storm. Tufted or rolled clouds with lurid streaks of light and unusual atmospheric colors are in turn followed by rapidly falling barometer and a heavy bank of clouds in the horizon in and from which lightning flashes appear. This is the cloud mass that surrounds the center of the hurricane, which advances westward, in the tropical and subtropical regions, with a velocity of 15 to 20 miles an hour. Closely following the appearance of the cloud mass that surrounds the vortex of the storm, the barometer falls with great rapidity and the wind increases to hurricane force from the north quadrants, the direction within the range of these quadrants being governed by the position of the observer with reference to the path of the storm. The vortex of a hurricane is comparatively small, averaging probably 8 to 10 miles in diameter. In the central area of the vortex the sky overhead is often clear, and light confused winds are experienced. As a rule, places in the direct path of the vortex will experience this period of calm for a period of about one-half hour, when the hurricane winds will again set in from a quarter opposite to that from which they were previously blowing. The barometer then rises rapidly, the winds diminish, and the weather gradually clears. The great whirlwind has passed on its westward course. At the point where, from natural causes, that differ in different cases, the hurricane makes its recurve to the northward its speed lessens to 8 or 10 miles an hour, and its strength often increases. After the recurve to the northeastward has been made and the storm enters the middle latitudes of the ocean or of the United States, its area increases and its intensity generally diminishes. The West Indian hurricane season is confined practically to the months of August, September, and October. Storms of this class sometimes occur, however, as early as June and as late as November. The following lines regarding the tropical hurricanes of the Atlantic cover, in the opinion of mariners, the season of their probable occurrence: June, too soon; July, stand by; August, look out you must; September, remember; October, all over. -- Captain Nares. The tropical storms of the Pacific Ocean that originate near or to the eastward of the Philippine Islands and move thence westward over the China Sea, or northward near the China and Japan coasts, are called typhoons. These storms present the characteristics noted in connection with West Indian hurricanes. Their season is, however, longer, extending from July to November, with August and September as the months of greatest typhoon frequency. The Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal also have storms that conform in character to West Indian hurricanes. Cyclones is the very proper name that is applied to these storms. Their season appears to be somewhat longer than that of the typhoons, and 'the season of the Bay of Bengal cyclones is assumed as extending from May to November, with occasional storms in April and December. In addition to the gyrating wind storms enumerated, the greater continental areas, and more especially their coast districts, are subject to strong seasonal winds that result from marked atmospheric pressure and temperature gradients that exist between their coastal and interior regions. The most pronounced winds of this type are the monsoons of southern and southeastern Asia and adjacent waters. The monsoons of southern Asia are due, during the warmer months, to the summer area of low barometric pressure that covers the warm interior of eastern Asia, whereby strong wind currents the summer monsoons are drawn from the southern coasts and oceans; and during the colder months, when the interior of Asia is occupied by an area of high barometric pressure of great magnitude, the direction of the monsoon winds is reversed and they blow from the interior over the coasts. The change in the winds or, as it is termed, "the bursting of the monsoon," occurs in May and October, and the winds of these months are often very severe. During the summer months the greater desert areas are the breeding places of violent whirling storms that are generated by the intense heat of those regions; and the deserts, and the regions that border them, are also swept by strong straight winds that are promoted by sharp gradients in temperature that exist between the desert surfaces and the cooler districts that surround them. Thus it appears that in various parts of the world, winds, by whatever name they may be known, and in the various forms in which they are experienced, owe their origin primarily to differences in temperature in the atmosphere that overlies the land and water surfaces. As wind directions and velocities are immediately associated with the distribution of atmospheric pressure, as indicated on weather maps by areas of high and low barometer, the value of systematic observations of the winds in foreseeing weather changes will be discussed under the head "Barometer."
CLOUDS. Clouds are the storm signals of the sky. Cloud formation is the beginning of the rain or snow producing process. When the process by which the aqueous vapor of the atmosphere is precipitated or condensed is feeble, clouds only are produced; when the process is stronger, or becomes more active, at the cloud levels, rain or snow results. Charts VI to IX (click to enlarge) show the direction of movement of cirrus and cirrostratus clouds in the United States in the several seasons of the year, and the average time, in hours, of their appearance before precipitation begins, or the average time that elapses between the appearance of these clouds and the development of wind and barometric conditions that in a greater or less degree favor precipitation in the form of rain or snow. In the United States, and more especially in the middle and northern districts, true cirrus and cirrostratus clouds are almost invariably observed moving from points between southwest and northwest. The appearance of clouds of this type indicates the presence, or at least the partial development, of a barometric depression to the westward. They are formed by the condensation, in high altitudes and at low temperatures, of the moisture in the air that overflows and is projected eastward from areas of low barometric pressure. When the depressions possess sufficient strength, rain or snow follows the appearance of the clouds within eighteen to thirty-six hours. In such cases the cirrus clouds appear to thicken and merge into cirrostratus, then into alto-stratus, and finally into stratus and nimbus, when precipitation begins. The lower clouds possess but little value as rain indicators for the reason that they usually come with the rain or precede by very short periods the beginning of precipitation. Mackerel scales and mare's tails Make lofty ships carry low sails. Mackerel clouds in sky, Expect more wet than dry. A mackerel sky, Not twenty-four hours dry. When cirrus merge into cirrostratus, and when cumulus increase toward evening and become lower, expect wet weather. After fine, clear weather the first signs in the sky of a coming change are usually light streaks, curls, wisps, or mottled patches of white distant clouds, which increase and are followed by an overcastting of murky vapor that grows into cloudiness. Usually the higher and more distant such clouds seem to be, the more gradual but general the coming change of weather will prove. Fitzroy. When cirrocumulus clouds appear in winter, expect warm and wet weather. When threads of cirrus clouds are brushed back from a westerly direction, expect rain and wind. If cirrus clouds dissolve and appear to vanish, it is an indication of fine weather. The mackerel clouds always indicate storm if they first appear about 15° north of west. (Kansas.) The longer the dry weather has lasted, the less is rain likely to follow the cloudiness of cirrus. If cirrus clouds form in fine weather with a falling barometer, it is almost sure to rain. Howard. Cirrus clouds announce the east wind. If their streaks point upward, they indicate rain; if downward, wind and dry weather. Howard. When cloud streamers point upward, the clouds are falling, or descending, and rain is indicated; when cloud streamers point downward, the clouds are ascending, and dry weather is indicated. Enough blue sky in the northwest to make a Scotchman a jacket is a sign of approaching clear weather. When on clear days isolated clouds drive over the zenith from the rain-wind side, rain or snow will follow within twenty-four hours more likely within a few hours. Clouds flying against the wind indicate rain. It will not rain much as long as the sky is clear before the wind; but when clouds fall in against the wind, rain will soon follow. Evening red and morning gray Will set the traveler on his way; But evening gray and morning red Will bring down rain upon his head. When it is evening, ye say it will be fair weather, for the sky is red; and in the morning it will be foul weather to-day, for the sky is red and lowering. Matthew, xvi, 2, 3. When a heavy cloud comes up in the southwest, and seems to settle back again, look out for a storm. When ye see a cloud rise out of the west, straightway ye say: There cometh a shower: and so it is. Luke. xii, 54. If clouds at the same height drive up with the wind, and gradually become thinner and descend, expect fine weather. If the upper current of clouds come from the northwest in the morning, a fine day will ensue. A sky covered with clouds need not cause apprehension, if the latter are high, and of no great density, and the air is still, the barometer at the same time being high. Rain falling under such circumstances is generally light, or of not long continuance. Jenyns It never clouds up in a June night for a rain. If two strata of clouds appear in hot weather to move in different directions, they indicate thunder. If clouds float at different heights and rates, but generally in opposite directions, expect heavy rains. A horizontal streak or band of clouds immediately in front of the mountains on the east side of Salt Lake Valley is an indication of rain within one or two days. When black clouds cover the western horizon, rain will follow soon, and extend to the eastward over the valley. Observer at Salt Lake. General squalls are preceded, accompanied, or followed, by clouds; but the dangerous white squall of the West Indies is indicated only by a rushing sound and by white wave crests to windward. Fitzroy. A small, fast-growing black cloud in violent motion, seen in the Tropics, is called the "bull's eye," and precedes the most terrible hurricanes. When you observe greenish-tinted masses of composite cloud collect in the southeast and remain there for several hours, expect a succession of heavy rains and gales. When the clouds rise in terraces of white, soon will the country of the corn priests be pierced with the arrows of rain. (Zuni Indians.) When the cumulus clouds are smaller at sunset than they were at noon, expect fair weather. When cumulus clouds become heaped up to leeward during a strong wind at sunset, thunder may be expected during the night. Well-defined cumulus clouds forming a few hours after sunrise, increasing toward the middle of the day, and decreasing toward evening are indicative of settled weather; if instead of subsiding in the evening and leaving the sky clear they keep increasing, they are indicative of wet. Jenyns. Clouds upon hills, if rising, do not bring rain; if falling, rain follows. When Lookout Mountain (Tennessee) has its cap on, it will rain in six hours. BAROMETER. At the level of the sea the weight of the atmosphere is about 14 pounds to every square inch, or about 1 ton to every square foot of the earth's surface. The barometer is used to gauge the weight or pressure of the atmosphere. This pressure is constantly varying, and the variations are instantly and accurately indicated by standard mercurial barometers. The indications thus furnished by the barometer are the best guide we now have for determining future weather conditions. As low barometer readings generally attend stormy weather, and high barometer readings are usually associated with clearing or fair weather, it follows that, as a rule, falling barometer indicates precipitation and wind, and rising barometer fair weather or the approach of fair weather. Upon the rapidity of the barometric changes depends the character of the weather that follows. As atmospheric waves and depressions are, by natural laws, caused to assume circular or oval forms, the wind directions with reference to barometric depressions, or areas of low barometer, are spirally inward toward the region of lowest atmospheric pressure, as indicated by readings of the barometer. The areas of low barometric pressure are, in fact, whirlwinds of greater or less magnitude and intensity, depending upon the steepness of the barometric gradient. The crests of the atmospheric waves, on the contrary, show winds flowing spirally outward from the region of highest barometric pressure. The wind directions thus produced give rise to, and are responsible for, all local weather signs. The south winds bring warmth, the north winds cold, the east winds, in the middle latitudes, indicate the approach from the westward of a low barometer, or storm area, and the west winds show that the storm area has passed to the eastward. The indications of the barometer generally forerun the shifts of the wind. This much is shown by local observations. In modern meteorological work, as conducted by the United States Weather Bureau, observations, simultaneously taken, are collected by telegraph from great areas, and it is possible by this means to calculate for periods of one to three days in advance the local signs that will be produced by the general conditions that are presented. In other words, modern meteorological appliances, methods, and skill make possible forecasts of the conditions that produce the local signs upon which all weather proverbs are based. Furthermore, it is now practicable not only to forecast general weather changes, but also to calculate with great accuracy the intensity and duration of storms. The barometer and wind indications for the United States are generally summarized in the following table:
| Barometer reduced to Sea Level | Wind Direction |
Character of Weather Indicated |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Steady | SW-NW | Fair, with slight temp. changes for 1-2 days |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Rising fast | SW-NW | Fair, followed within 2 days by warmer & rain. |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Falling slow | SW-NW | Warmer with rain in 24-36 hours. |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Falling fast | SW-NW | Warmer with rain in 18-24 hours. |
| 30.20+ Stationary | SW-NW | Continued fair with no decided temp. change. |
| 30.20+ Falling slow | SW-NW | Slowly rising temp. and fair for 2 days. |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Falling slow | S-SE | Rain within 24 hours. |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Falling fast | S-SE | Wind increasing in force with rain within 12-24 hours |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Falling slow | SE-NE | Rain in 12-18 hours |
| 30.10 - 30.20 Falling fast | SE-NE | Increasing wind with rain within 12 hours. |
| 30.10+ Falling slow | E-NE | In summer, with light winds, rain may not fall for several days: In winter, rain within 24 hours. |
| 30.10+ Falling fast | E-NE | In summer, rain probable within 12-24 hours: In winter, rain or snow with increasing winds will often set in, when the barometer begins to fall and the wind sets in from NE. |
| 30 or below, Falling slow | SE-NE | Rain will continue 1-2 days. |
| 30 or below, Falling fast | SE-NE | Rain with high wind, followed within 24 hours by clearing and colder. |
| 30 or below, Rising slow | S-SW | Clearing within a few hours, continued fair for several days |
| 29.80 or below, Falling slow | S-E | Severe storm of wind and rain or snow imminent, followed within 24 hours by clearing and colder. |
| 29.80 or below, Falling fast | E-N | Severe northeast gales and heavy rain or snow, followed in winter by a cold wave. |
| 29.80 or below, Rising fast | Going W | Clearing and colder. |
Northerly and southerly winds may be chased with either fair or storm winds. When they blow from points west of north and south they are fair-weather winds; when from points east of north and south they are foul-weather winds. During the colder months, when the land temperatures are below the water temperatures of the oceans and the Gulf of Mexico, precipitation will begin when the wind shifts and blows steadily from the water over the land without regard to the height of the barometer. In such cases the moisture in the warm ocean winds is condensed by the clod of the continental area. During the summer months, on the contrary, the on-shore winds are not necessarily rain winds, for the reason that they are cooler than the land surfaces and their capacity for moisture is increased by the warmth that is communicated to them by the land surface. In such cases thunderstorms commonly occur when the ocean winds are intercepted by mountain ranges or peaks. If, however, the easterly winds increase in force, with falling barometer, the approach of an area of low barometric pressure from the westward is indicated and rain will follow within a day or two. Rapid changes in the barometer indicate early and marked changes in the weather. A sudden rise in the barometer is very nearly as dangerous as a sudden fall, because it shows that the level is unsteady. In an ordinary gale the wind often blows hardest when the barometer is just beginning to rise, directly after having been very low. Should the barometer continue low when the sky becomes clear, expect more rain within 24 hours. C.L. Prince If the barometer falls gradually for several days during the continuance of fine weather, much wet will probably ensue in the end. In like manner, if it keep rising while the wet continues, the weather, after a day or two, is likely to set in fair for some time. Jenyns. A very low barometer is usually attendant upon stormy weather, with wind and rain at intervals, but the latter not necessarily in any great quantity. If the weather, notwithstanding a very low barometer, is fine and calm, it is not to be depended upon; a change may come on very suddenly. Jenyns. If the barometer and thermometer both rise together, It is a very sure sign of coming fine weather. If the barometer falls two or three tenths of an inch in four hours, expect a gale of wind. C.L. Prince. If you observe that the surface of the mercury in the barometer vibrates upon the approach of a storm, you may expect the gale to be severe. C. L. Prince. In summer, when the barometer falls suddenly, expect a thunderstorm; and if it does not rise again when the storm ceases, there will be several days of unsettled weather. C. L. Prince. A summer thunderstorm which does not much depress the barometer will be very local and of slight consequence. C. L. Prince. When the barometer falls considerably without any particular change of weather, you may be certain that a violent storm is raging at a distance. C. L. Prince. In winter heavy rain is indicated by a decrease of pressure and an increase in temperature. C. L. Prince. The barometer falls lower for high winds than for heavy rain. When the glass falls low, Prepare for a blow; When it rises high, Let all your kites fly. -- Nautical. First rise after low, Foretells stronger blow; Long foretold (falling), long last; Short notice, soon past. -- Fitzroy.
Charts X to XIII (click to enlarge) show, for various sections of the United States, the point to which the barometer falls, in the several seasons, before precipitation begins. These readings apply more particularly to storms that advance from the west and northwest, and records show, in connection with storms that advance from the directions named, that precipitation seldom begins before the barometer falls to or below the figures given. In the case of storms that advance from the southwest or south, which are indicated by winds blowing from points between east and north, precipitation will, as before stated, often begin when the barometer begins to fall. From the Mississippi and Missouri valleys to the Atlantic coast, and on the Pacific coast, rain generally begins on a falling barometer, while in the Rocky Mountain and plateau districts, and on the eastern Rocky Mountain slope, precipitation seldom begins until the barometer begins to rise, after a fall. This is true as regards the eastern half of the country, however, only during the colder months, and in the presence of general storms that may occur at other seasons. In the warmer months summer showers and thunderstorms usually come about the time the barometer turns from falling to rising. The fact that during practically the entire year precipitation on the great western plains and in the mountain regions that lie between the plains and the Pacific coast districts does not begin until the center of the low barometer area has passed to the eastward or southward and the wind has shifted to the northern quadrants, with rising barometer, is an important one to the forecaster. UNSEASONABLE WEATHER DUE TO ABNORMAL, BAROMETRIC CONDITIONS. As local weather conditions are associated with the areas of high and low barometric pressure that appear on our daily weather maps, so are these areas of high and low pressure apparently controlled, both as regards intensity and movement by the great so-called permanent continental and oceanic areas of high and low barometer. The apparent relations referred to are discussed by the writer as follows in the Monthly Weather Review for June, 1902: The cause of unseasonable weather is not demonstrable. Neither is it possible in all cases to determine which of the general atmospheric conditions that are associated with unseasonable weather partake of the nature of cause and which of effect. It has been observed that summer periods of low temperature are associated with barometric pressure below the normal and abundant rainfall, and that summer periods of excessive heat are associated with barometric pressure about or above the normal and a marked deficiency in rainfall. It has also been observed that winter periods of excessive cold are associated with barometric pressure above the normal and little or no precipitation, and that periods of high temperature in winter are associated with barometric pressure below the normal and rain or snow. It has been observed further that the general atmospheric conditions referred to are associated with areas of high and low barometric pressure that traverse the United States. In summer the atmosphere over regions subjected to unusual cold and abnormally heavy rainfall is dominated by areas of low barometric pressure, or general storms that follow unusual tracks for the season, and the atmosphere over regions subjected to unusual heat is undisturbed by the passage of general storms, and is dominated by an extensive and almost stationary area of high barometric pressure. In winter periods of excessive cold are experienced in connection with areas of high barometric pressure of great magnitude that advance from the British Northwest Territory, and also in connection with general storms that follow abnormal southerly pathe, and periods of unusually warm weather occur in connection with a succession of general storms that pursue abnormal northerly paths. A study of the daily meteorological charts of the Northern Hemisphere shows that the general atmospheric conditions over the United States that are associated with unseasonable weather in any part of the country are, in turn, associated with atmospheric conditions that obtain over at least a great part of the Northern Hemisphere. The international charts show that when a period of abnormal weather prevails over a considerable area of the United States, there is a disarrangement of the normal distribution of atmospheric pressure over a great part of the Northern Hemisphere. They show that in the presence of unseasonable weather in any part of the Northern Hemisphere the so-called permanent continental and oceanic areas of high and low barometric pressure present abnormal aspects, and there is an interruption in the normal succession and progression of the areas of high and low barometric pressure of the middle latitudes. Admitting the possibility of a primary cause of unseasonable weather that first affects the earth's atmosphere as a1 whole, by disarranging the normal distribution of atmospheric pressure and finally interrupts the usual succession over the continents and oceans of areas of high barometer and general storms, there is presented a fascinating field for speculation and study. Speculation regarding the nature of the cause would naturally be directed toward supposed evidence of solar disturbances as indicated by sun spots, to manifestations of the electro-magnetic influence of the sun's radiant energy, or perhaps to planetary or other equally obscure and possibly imaginary influences. Study should begin with facts presented at the surface of the earth. In the outline of these facts 'the association of periods of unseasonable weather with local, continental, and hemispherical barometric pressure has been shown. A study of international meteorological reports, conducted with a due regard for the facts referred to, would be calculated to lead to a determination of the relation between changes and movements in the smaller and the greater barometric areas with some cause that is external to the earth's atmosphere. It is possible, also, that study carried along these -lines would lead to the discovery that periods of unseasonable weather in any part of the Northern Hemisphere are preceded days, and perhaps weeks, by certain changes in the hemispherical system of barometric pressure, and that all the changes and conditions that are observed in our atmosphere and all kinds and types of weather that we experience are subject to definable laws of causation. THE PHYSICAL EFFECT ON ANIMAL LIFE OF CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE. As the normal pressure, or weight, of the atmosphere is about 1 ton to every square foot of surface at the level of the sea, and a change of 1 inch in the mercurial column of the barometer means a change in pressure of about 70 pounds to every square foot of surface, decided changes in atmospheric pressure must exert a marked influence upon the body and its functions. A change in the barometer of 1 inch in twenty-four hours is not uncommon in many parts of the United States, and this change in the barometer causes a change of about one-half ton in the weight of the atmosphere that is sustained by the average human body. It is not difficult, therefore, to imagine that the physical organism of animals may be sensitive to these changes, and that it has become an inherited instinct to associate the sensations experienced under different atmospheric pressures with the kinds of weather they indicate. The organization of diseased and delicate human bodies, and of many kinds of animals is extremely sensitive to atmospheric changes, and aches, pains, and nervousness in humans, and restless behavior on the part of animals, birds, and insects may, in a measure, be attributed to low, rapidly decreasing atmospheric pressure that precedes and attends storm periods. Birds fly high when the barometer is high and fly low when the barometer is low. The explanation of this fact is that when the barometer is high the air is heavier and denser and has more sustaining capacity, and birds are therefore able to fly or soar high with less effort than would be required at times when the barometer is low and the air less dense. Everything is lovely and the goose honks high. Wild geese fly high in pleasant weather and low in bad weather. The low flight of rooks indicates rain. When the cuckoo is heard in low lands, it indicates rain; when on high lands, fair weather. When swallows in evenings fly high and chirp, fair weather follows; when low, rain follows. When swallows fleet soar high and sport in air, He told us that the welkin would be clear. -- Gay Cranes soaring aloft and quietly in the air foreshows fair weather, but if they make much noise, as if consulting which way to go, it foreshadows a storm that's near at hand. Thomas Wilfsford. Martins fly low before and during rainy weather. Colonel Dunwoody. When men-of-war hawks fly high, it is a sign of a clear sky; when they fly low, prepare for a blow. Bees will not swarm before a near storm. When bees remain in their hives or fly but a short distance, expect rain. Smoke falls to the ground preceding rain. Men work better, eat more, and sleep sounder when the barometer is high. Do business with men when the wind is from the westerly; for then the barometer is high. TEMPERATURE. During the warmer months the temperature generally rises, with falling barometer, before rain, and falls, with rising barometer, after rain begins. During the colder months the temperature usually rises and continues above the normal, before and during rain or snow, and begins to fall, with rising barometer, about the time the rain or snow ends. The rainy periods of summer are cool and the rain or snow periods of winter are warm for the season.
Charts XIV to XXI (click to enlarge) show for the several seasons the wind directions that attend periods of abnormally high and low temperature in the United States. In the interior of the country periods of high temperature are naturally associated with southerly and southwesterly winds, and periods of lower temperature with westerly and northwesterly winds. The charts of wind directions referred to show that on the Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf coasts, and on the Great Lakes, the water temperature modifies the heat of summer and the cold of winter when on-shore winds prevail. The changes in temperature before, during, and after storms also have an effect on animal and plant life, and many proverbs are based upon observations of these effects. As, however, changes, in temperature are direct results of wind directions, sayings regarding temperature are almost invariably associated with those relating to the wind. The warmth of the south wind is enervating. The cold of the north wind is bracing. The chill of the east wind is conducive to aches and pain. The prevailing west winds and moderate temperatures impart the dominating qualities that are possessed by the peoples of the temperate zone. In the summer, when the sun burns more than usual, expect thunderstorms. If the temperature increases between 9 p. m. and midnight, when the sky is cloudless, expect rain; and if, during a long and severe period of low temperature, the temperature increases between midnight and morning, expect a thaw. C. L. Prince. HUMIDITY. The temperature of the air increases before rain, the capacity of the air for moisture increases with increasing temperature, and the rain winds of the United States are from the oceans and the Gulf. It follows, therefore, that there is an increase in the humidity of the air before rain. It does not follow, however, that every increase in humidity at the earth's surface indicates rain, for in the coast districts an increase in humidity may result from a shift of the wind that causes it to blow temporarily from over the water, and a temporary increase is sometimes due to fog, and neither of these conditions necessarily indicates rain. Ignoring purely local and temporary causes and conditions, however, it may be assumed that, as a rule, general rains are preceded twelve to twenty-four hours by an increase in atmospheric moisture. The presence in the air of varying amounts of moisture is indicated by the quality that various substances possess to absorb moisture, and by the effect of increasing and decreasing amounts of air moisture on animal and plant life and on many inanimate objects. It is also probable that the moisture of the air shares with atmospheric pressure and temperature in producing good and ill effects on animal and plant life. Warm, moist air attends falling and low barometer, and under these conditions there is feeling of physical and mental lassitude that is in striking contrast to the feeling of exhilaration that accompanies the cool, dry winds that attend rising and high barometer. Observations to determine the amount and relative amount of atmospheric moisture are usually made with wet and dry bulb thermometers. The wet-bulb thermometer is moistened and the evaporation of the moisture from the bulb cools its surface. When the air is saturated with moisture no evaporation takes place, the air about the instrument will contain no more moisture, and the relative humidity is 100 per cent. The drier the air the more rapid will be the process of evaporation and the greater will be the difference between the readings of the wet and dry bulb thermometers. Hygrometers are constructed which depend for a record upon the effect of moisture on hair that has been specially prepared for this purpose; these devices do not, however, possess a sufficient degree of accuracy to meet the needs of scientific work. Neither do twice-daily readings of the dry and wet bulb thermometers afford sufficient data for a satisfactory study of the relation between atmospheric moisture and rainfall, and until some means can be devised and utilized for securing continuous records of atmospheric moisture for comparison with similar records of atmospheric pressure and temperature this important factor in the production of precipitation and frost can not be properly utilized in the work of weather forecasting. The following proverbs are based upon the effects of atmospheric moisture that have been observed preceding rain: Rain comes from a mass of vapor which is cooled. Aristotle. Mountains cool the uplifted vapor, converting it again into water. Aristotle. A red sun has water in his eye. The greater the difference between the readings of the wet and dry bulb thermometers the greater will be the probability of fine weather, and vice versa. C. L. Prince. When walls are unusually damp rain is expected. Horses sweating in the stable is a sign of rain. Doors and windows are hard to shut in damp weather. Flies sting and are more troublesome than usual when the humidity increases before rain. Sailors note the tightening of the cordage on ships as a sign of coming rain. Sensitive plants contract their leaves and blossoms when the humidity increases. A piece of seaweed hung up will become damp previous to rain. A lump of hemp acts as a good hygrometer and prognosticates rain when it is damp. Tobacco becomes moist preceding rain. When rheumatic people complain of more than ordinary pains it will probably rain. When the locks turn damp in the scalp house surely it will rain. American Indians. If corns, wounds, and sores itch or ache more than usual rain is likely to fall shortly. When matting on the floor is shrinking, dry weather may be expected. When matting expands, expect wet weather. Ropes shorten with an increase of humidity. Ropes being difficult to untwist indicate rain. Quarries of stone and slate indicate rain by a moist exudation from the stones. Salt increases in weight before rain. A farmer's wife says when her cheese salt is soft it will rain; when getting dry fair weather may be expected. If metal plates and dishes sweat it is a sign of bad weather. Pliny. Three foggy or misty mornings indicate rain. (Oregon.) A rising fog indicates fair weather; if the fog settles down expect rain. Fog from seaward, fair weather; fog from landward, rain. (New England.) Hoar frost indicates rain. Heavy frosts bring heavy rain; no frosts, no rain. (California.) The larger the halo about the moon the nearer the rain clouds and the sooner the rain may be expected. When the perfume of flowers is unusually perceptible rain may be expected. When the mountain moss is soft and limpid expect rain. When mountain moss is dry and brittle expect clear weather. Sunflower raising its head indicates rain. Rainbow in morning, shepherds take warning; Rainbow at night, shepherds' delight. Rainbow at night, sailors' delight; Rainbow in morning, sailors' warning. Rainbow in morning shows that shower is west of us and that we will probably get it. Rainbow in the evening shows that shower is east of us and is passing off. Snakes expose themselves on the approach of rain. In dry weather, when creeks and springs that have gone dry become moist, or, as we may say, begin to sweat, it indicates approaching rain. Many springs that have gone dry will give a good flow of water just before rain. J. E. Walter, Kansas. Drains, ditches, and dunghills are more offensive before rain. Floors saturated with oil become very damp just before rain. Guitar strings shorten before rain. Human hair (red) curls and kinks at the approach of a storm, and restraightens after the storm. Lamp wicks crackle, candles burn dim, soot falls down, smoke descends, walls and pavements are damp, and disagreeable odors arise from ditches and gutters before rain. Pipes for smoking tobacco become indicative of the state of the air. When the scent is longer retained than usual and seems denser and more powerful it often forebodes a storm. Soap covered with moisture indicates bad weather. Refractions of light of any remarkable kind frequently forebode rain, sometimes storms; at sea the knowledge of this is very useful. Circles around the sun and moon, mock suns, and other phenomena of this kind, together with the unusual elevation of distant coasts, masts of ships, etc., particularly when the refracted images are inverted, are known to be frequent foreboders of stormy weather. ANIMALS. The observations of naturalists, shepherds, herdsmen, and others who have been brought much into contact with animals, have proved most clearly that these creatures are cognizant of approaching changes in the state of the air long before we know of their coming by other signs. To many kinds of animals, birds, and insects, the weather is of so much more importance than to us, that it would be wonderful if nature had not provided them with a more keenly prophetic instinct in this respect. The occurrence of a storm would, doubtless, be the means of depriving some of the Carnivora of a meal, and it is known that utter destruction would occur to the nests of some birds if the tenants were absent during a gale of wind or a pelting shower; while to vast numbers of insects the state of the weather for the fraction of a week may determine the whole time during which they may enjoy their little lives. To enable all these creatures to prepare for coming trouble, they seem to have been fitted with what is to us an unknown sense informing them of minute changes in the atmosphere, and it has long been observed that they eat with more avidity, return to their homes, or become unusually restless before the coming of the danger of which they are forewarned. Weather Lore. Cats have the reputation of being weather wise, an old notion which has given rise to a most extensive folklore. It is almost universally believed that good weather may be expected when the cat washes herself, but bad when she licks her coat against the grain, or washes her face over her ears, or sits with her tail to the fire. When cattle go out to pasture and lie down early in the day it indicates early rain. Dogs making holes in the ground, eating grass in the morning, or refusing meat are said to indicate coming rain. Colonel Dunwoody All shepherds agree in saying that before a storm comes sheep become frisky, leap, and butt or "box" each other. Folklore Journal. When horses and cattle stretch out their necks and sniff the air it will rain. Horses, as well as other domestic animals, foretell the coming of rain by starting more than ordinary and appearing in other respects restless and uneasy. Hogs crying and running unquietly up and down with hay or litter in their mouths foreshadow a storm to be near at hand. Thomas Willsford. Kine, when they assemble at one end of a field with their tails to windward, often indicate rain or wind. When oxen or sheep collect together as if they were seeking shelter a storm may be expected. Apache Indians. BIRDS. When birds of long flight hang about home expect a storm. Migratory birds fly south from cold and north from warm weather. When a severe cyclone is near, they become puzzled and fly in circles, dart in the air, and can be easily decoyed. (North Carolina.) When birds cease to sing, rain and thunder will probably occur. Birds and fowls oiling feathers indicate rain. If fowls roll in the dust and sand, rain is at hand. Bats flying late in the evening indicate fair weather. Bats who speak flying tell of rain to-morrow. If cocks crow late and early, clapping their wings occasionally, rain is expected. If the cock goes crowing to bed, He'll certainly rise with a watery head. Chickens, when they pick up email stones and pebbles, and are more noisy than usual, afford, according to Aratus, a sign of rain. Other authors prognosticate the coming of rain from the habit fowls have of rubbing in the dust and clapping their wings. When chimney swallows circle and call, they speak of rain. (Zuni Indians.) When cranes make a great noise or scream, expect rain. One crow flying alone is a sign of foul weather, but if crows fly in pairs expect fine weather. If the wild geese gang out to sea, Good weather there will surely be. If crows make much noise and fly round and round, expect rain. Wild geese flying past large bodies of water indicate change of weather. Going south, cold; going north, warm. Guinea fowls squall more than usual before rain. Clamorous as a parrot against rain. Shakespeare. Parrots whistling indicate rain. Gulls will soar aloft, and, circling around, utter shrill cries before a storm. When grouse drum at night, Indians predict a deep fall of snow. When the peacock loudly bawls, Soon we'll have both rain and squalls. When herons fly up and down as in doubt where to rest, expect rain. Martins fly low before and during rain. When the voices of blackbirds are unusually shrill, or when blackbirds sing much in the morning, rain will follow. Pigeons return home unusually early before rain. If sea fowls retire to the shore or marshes, a storm is approaching. Loud and long singing of robins denotes rain. Robins will perch on the topmost branches of trees and whistle when a storm is approaching. The stormy petrel is found 'to be a sure token of stormy weather. When these birds gather in numbers in the wake of a ship, the sailors feel sure of an impending tempest. FISH. When fish bite readily and swim near the surface, rain may be expected. Fishes in general, both in salt and fresh waters, are observed to sport most and bite more eagerly before rain than at any other time. Black-fish in schools indicate an approaching gale. Air bubbles over clam beds indicate rain. When pike lie on the bed of a stream quietly, expect rain or wind. Porpoises, when they sport about ships and chase one another as if in play, and indeed their being numerous on the surface of the sea at any time, is rather a stormy sign. The same may be said of dolphins and grampus. That the cause of these motions is some electrical change in the air seems probable. Wilsford, in his Secrets of Nature, tells us, "Porpoises or sea-hogs, when observed to sport and chase one another about ships, expect then some stormy weather." Trout jump and herring schools more rapidly before rain. The appearance of a great number of fish on the west coast of the Gulf of Mexico indicates bad weather and easterly winds. INSECTS. A bee was never caught in a shower. When bees to distance wing their flight, Days are warm and skies are bright; But when their flight ends near at home, Stormy weather is sure to come. When ants are situated on low ground, their migration may be taken as an indication of approaching heavy rains. Expect stormy weather when ants travel in lines, and fair weather when they scatter. Ants are very busy, gnats bite, crickets are lively, spiders come out of their nests, and flies gather in houses just before rain. If spiders are indolent, rain generally soon follows. Their activity during rain is proof of its short duration. When flies congregate in swarms, rain follows soon. When flies bite greedily, expect rain. Spiders strengthening their webs indicates rain. If garden spiders forsake their cobwebs, rain is at hand. When you see the ground covered with spider webs which are wet with dew, and there is no dew on the ground, it is a sign of rain before night, for the spiders are putting up umbrellas; but others say when the spiders put out their sunshades it will be a hot day. PLANTS. The odor of flowers is more apparent just before a shower (when the air is moist) than at any other time. Cottonwood and quaking asp trees turn up their leaves before rain. When the leaves of the sugar maple tree are turned upside down, expect rain. The convolvulus folds up its petals at the approach of rain. Before rain the leaves of the lime, sycamore, plane, and poplar trees show a great deal more of their under surface when trembling in the wind. Clover leaves turned up so as to show light under side indicate approaching rain. Corn fodder dry and crisp indicates fair weather; but damp and limp, rain. It is very sensitive to hygrometric changes. When the pink-eyed pimpernel closes in the daytime, it is a sign of rain. Milkweed closing at night indicates rain. Mushrooms and toadstools are numerous before rain. The pitcher plant opens its mouth before rain. Trees grow dark before a storm. When the leaves of trees curl, with the wind from the south, it indicates rain. SUN. The sun, moon, and stars indicate impending weather changes only so far as their appearance is affected by existing atmospheric conditions. The sun reveals the secrets of the sky, And who dares give the source of light the lie. -- Virgil. The sun sets weeping in the lowly west, Witnessing storms to come, woe, and unrest. -- Shakespeare. When the sun sets unhappily (with a hazy veiled face), then will the morning be angry with wind, storm, and sand. (Zuni Indians.) Above the rest, the sun who never lies, Foretells the change of weather in the skies; For if he rise unwilling to his race, Clouds on his brow and spots upon his face, Or if through mists he shoot his sullen beams, Frugal of light in loose and straggling streams, Suspect a drizzling day and southern rain, Fatal to fruits, and flocks, and promised grain. -- Virgil. Since the colors and duration of twilight, especially at evening, depend upon the amount of condensed vapor which the atmosphere contains, these appearances should afford some indications of the weather which may be expected to succeed. The following are some of the rales which are relied upon by seamen: When after sunset the western sky is of a whitish yellow, and this tint extends a great height, it is probable that it will rain during the night or next day. Gaudy or unusual hues, with hard, definitely outlined clouds, foretell rain and probable wind. If the sun before setting appears diffuse and of a brilliant white, it foretells storm. If it sets in a sky slightly purple, the atmosphere near the zenith being of a bright blue, we may rely upon fine weather. Weather Proverbs. If the sun sets in dark, heavy clouds, expect rain next day. A red morn, that ever yet betokened Wreck to the seamen, tempest to the field, Sorrow to shepherds, woe unto the birds, Gust and foul flaws to herdmen and herds. -- Shakespeare. When the sun sets bright and clear, An easterly wind you need not fear. When the sun draws water, rain follows soon. Sun drawing water indicates rain. If the sun draws water in the morning it will rain before night. The sun setting after a fine day behind a heavy bank of clouds, with a falling barometer, is generally indicative of rain or snow, according to the season, either in the night or next morning. Jenyns. When it is evening ye say it will be fair weather: for the sky is red. And in the morning, it will be foul weather today: for the sky is red and lowring. Matthew xvi, 2, 3. An evening grey and a morning red Will send the shepherd wet to bed. Evening red and morning gray, Two sure signs of one fine day. Red skies in the evening precede fine to-morrows. When the sun in the morning is breaking through the clouds and scorching, a thunderstorm follows in the afternoon. A blur or haziness about the sun indicates a storm. A solar halo indicates bad weather. Next mark the features of the God of Day; Most certain signs to mortals they convey, When fresh he breaks the portals of the east, And when his wearied coursers sink to rest. If bright he rise, from speck and tarnish clear, Throughout the day no rain or tempest fear. If cloudless his full orb descend at night, To-morrow's sun will rise and shine as bright. But if returning to the eastern sky, A hollow blackness on his center lie; Or north and south his lengthened beams extend, These signs a stormy wind or rain portend. Observe if shorn of circling rays his head, And o'er his face a veil of redness spread; Far o'er the plains the God of Winds will sweep, Lashing the troubled bosom of the deep. If in a shroud of blackness he appear, Forewarned, take heed a drenching rain is near If black and red their tints together blend, And to his face a murky purple lend, Soon will the wolfish wind tempestuous howl, And the big clouds along the welkin roll. And foul weather expect, when thou canst trace A baleful halo circling Phoebus' face Of murky darkness, and approaching near: If of two circles, fouler weather fear. Mark when from eastern wave his rays emerge, And ere he quench them in the western surge, If near th' horizon ruddy clouds arise, Mocking the solar orb in form and size: If two such satellites the sun attend, Soon will tempestuous rain from heaven descend: If one, and north, the northern wind prevails; If one, and south, expect the southern gales. -- J. Lamb's "Aratus." MOON. The moon and the weather May change together; But change of the moon Does not change the weather. If we'd no moon at all, And that may seem strange, We still should have weather That's subject to change. -- "Notes and Queries." The circle of the moon never filled a pond; the circle of the sun wets a shepherd. If the full moon rises clear, expect fine weather. A lunar halo indicates rain, and the larger the halo the sooner the rain may be expected. Last night the moon had a golden ring, But to-night no moon I see. If the moon show a silver shield, Be not afraid to reap your field; But if she rises halved round, Soon will tread on deluged ground. A large ring around the moon and low clouds indicate rain in twenty-four hours; a small ring and high clouds, rain in several days. The moon with a circle brings water in her beak. The moon, if in house be, cloud it will, rain soon will come. (Zuni Indians.) If the full moon rise pale, expect rain. When the moon rises red and appears large, with clouds, expect rain in twelve hours. Therefore the moon, the governor of the floods, Pale in her anger, washes all the air That rheumatic diseases do abound. -- Shakespeare. The moon, her face if red be, Of water speaks she. (Zuni Indians.) When the moon is darkest near the horizon, expect rain. Each sign observe more sure when two agree; Nor doubt the event foretold by omens three. Note well the events of the preceding year, And with the rising and setting stars compare. But chiefly look to Cynthia's varying face; There surest signs of coming weather trace. Observe when twice four days she veils her light, Nor cheers with silvery ray the dreary night. Mark these prognostics through the circling year, And wisely for the rain, the wind, the storm prepare: A halo oft fair Cynthia's face surrounds, With single, double, or with triple bounds; If with one ring and broken it appear, Sailors, beware! the driving gale is near. Unbroken if it vanisheth away Serene the air, and smooth the tranquil sea. The double halo boisterous weather brings, Arid furious tempests follow triple rings. These signs from Cynthia's varying orb arise Forewarn the prudent, and direct the wise. -- J. Lamb's "Aratus.' STARS. When the stars flicker in a dark background, rain or snow follows soon. When the stars begin to huddle, The earth will soon become a puddle. Before the rising of a wind the lesser stars are not visible, even on a clear night. Pliny, XVIII, 80. When the sky seems very full of stars, expect rain, or, in winter, frost. Excessive twinkling of stars indicates heavy dews, rain, or snow, or stormy weather in the near future. When the stars above 45° in altitude, or the North Star, flickers strangely, or appears closer than usual, expect rain. When the stars appear to be numerous, very large, and dull, and do not twinkle, expect rain. Now mark where high upon the zodiac line The stars of lustre-lacking Cancer shine. Near to the constellation's southern bound Phatne, a nebulous bright spot, is found. On either side this cloud, nor distant far, Glitters to north and south a little star. Though not conspicuous, yet these two are famed The Onoi by ancient sages named. If when the sky around be bright and clear, Sudden from sight the Phatne disappear, And the two Onoi north and south are seen Ready to meet no obstacle between The welkin soon will blacken with rain, And torrents rush along the thirsty plain. If black the Phatne, and the Onoi clear, Sure sign again that drenching showers are near. And if the northern star be lost to sight, While still the southern glitters fair and bright, Notus will blow. But if the southern fail, And clear the northern, Boreas will prevail. And as the skies above, the waves below Signs of the rising wind and tempest show. -- J. Lamb's "Aratus." When the bright gems that night's black vault adorn But faintly shine of half their radiance shorn And not by cloud obscured or dimmed to sight By the fine silvery veil of Cynthia's light, But of themselves appear to faint away, They warning give of a tempestuous day. -- J. Lamb's "Aratus." L.ONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS. In the early ages when the classes and the masses of the leading nations of the earth were deficient in educational qualifications even to the extent of ordinary clerical accomplishments, the human mind was particularly receptive to assumptions on the part of so-called sages and wise men of a knowledge of coming events. In later days semi-civilized and barbarous peoples have given credence to the prophesies of their priests and medicine men, and to-day fakirs and charlatans in the various professional and scientific fields, astrologers, fortunetellers, and long-range weather forecasters command, in civilized communities, a lucrative following. Long-range weather forecasts have ever been impossible of achievement. The period for which weather changes and conditions can be forecast varies from two to three days, depending necessarily, in each instance, on the season of the year and existing atmospheric conditions. Several methods are employed in the compilation of so-called long-range weather forecasts. The first method, and the only one that possesses merit, being a statement based upon average weather conditions that have prevailed at certain times and seasons in given localities or sections. The main, and fatal, weakness in this system is that average weather conditions are seldom experienced. Average weather conditions are made up largely of extremes, and the probability of experiencing average weather lessens as the length of the period lessens. The average weather for a year differs but slightly from the normal of many years. The seasons possess each year the same general characteristics as regards temperature, precipitation, and winds. The months exhibit, year after year, the same general type of weather. For periods of less than a month, however, averages possess but little value in weather forecasting, and attempts to specify in detail the weather conditions for weeks, months, or seasons in advance are, for all practical purpose, valueless. Long-range weather forecasts based upon astronomical events, or upon the appearance of the heavenly bodies, can not stand the test of verification, and careful examinations and comparisons have failed to establish any connection between the movements, positions, and changes of the sun, moon, and stars with changes in the weather that are experienced from day to day. Neither can it be shown that the actions of animals, birds, and fish, or the condition of plant life, give evidence of other than presenter past weather conditions; and long-range weather forecasts' based upon the condition of the weather on certain days have for a basis superstition and ignorance. It will be interesting, however, to quote and discuss, under the several heads, proverbs, or sayings, that embody long-range forecasts that have been handed down, in many instances, through centuries of time. As all weather saying's relating to the sun apply more particularly to the character of the weather as regards sunshine, on specified calendar and church days, a reference will be made to sayings of this class under the heading, "Days, months, seasons, and years." SUN SPOTS. A favorite theory among meteorologists is that sun spots have a definite influence upon meteorological as well as upon magnetic and electrical conditions, and that the more or less well-defined eleven year period of sun-spot maximum can be directly associated with rainfall and the distribution of temperature and barometric pressure. Prof. F. H. Bigelow, of the United States Weather Bureau, has recently written as follows regarding the relation between sun spots and terrestrial phenomena: The variation in the solar output, as registered in the relative frequency of solar spots, has long been known to have a marked synchronism with the horizontal component of terrestrial magnetism. The sun spots constitute but a sluggish register of the solar activity, and the curve of terrestrial magnetic force presents a series of characteristic miner fluctuations superimposed on the general eleven-year curve. These special variations reappear with marked distinctness in the frequency of the solar prominences; and they are coordinate with the variations of themean annual barometric pressures all over the earth. The pressures in the earth's atmosphere are undergoing changes in short cycles of about three years in duration, which correspond with changes in the external work of the sun, and the cycles are produced by the modifications in the general circulation of the atmosphere. There is, besides, a sort of surging of the atmosphere with more or less stationary configurations, and these involve the seasonal climatic changes of weather by which one year differs from another. Thus the regions about the Indian Ocean and South America vary synchronously, but inversely; the continental and ocean areas do the same. There seems to be a tendency toward a greater cyclic change with a period of about eight years, within which the pressure excesses begin, for example, in India, pass through Asia, Europe, North America, and South America back to India. This synchronism between solar and terrestrial variations holds, in the United States, for the pressures, temperatures, storm-track movements in longitude and latitude, cold-wave tracks, etc. Commenting upon this summary, the New York Sun of April 26, 1903, remarks: Meteorology has a deep interest in elucidating these fundamental relations of solar and terrestrial physics, since upon this depends our hope of making seasonal forecasts upon a scientific basis. In a recent article Sir Joseph Norman Lockyer remarks regarding this subject, as follows: Everybody agrees that all the energy utilized on this planet of ours, with the single exception of that supplied by the tides, comes from the sun. We are all familiar with the changes due to the earth's daily rotation bringing us now on the side of our planet illumined by the sun, then plunging us into darkness; that changes of season must necessarily follow from the earth's yearly journey around the sun is universally recognized. On the other hand, it is a modern idea that these solar phenomena which prove to us considerable changes of temperature in the sun itself, may, and indeed should, be echoed by the changes on our planet, giving us thereby an eleven-year period to be considered, as well as a year and a day. This response of the earth to solar changes was first observed in the continuous record of those instruments which register for us the earth's magnetism at any one place. The magnetic effects were strongest when there were more spots, taking them as indicators of solar changes. Lamont first (without knowing it) made this out at the beginning of the latter half of the century (1851) from the Gottingen observations of the daily range of the declination needle. Sabine the next year not only announced the same cycle in the violence of the "magnetic storms" observed at Toronto, but at once attributed them to solar influence, the two cycles running concurrently. It is now universally recognized that terrestrial magnetic effects, including auroree, minutely echo the solar changes. The eleven-year period is not one to be neglected. Next comes the inquiry in relation to meteorology. Sir William Herschel, in the first year of the nineteenth century, when there were practically neither sun-spot nor rainfall observations available, did not hesitate to attack the question whether the price of wheat was affected by the many or few spot solar condition. He found the price to be high when the sun was spotless, and vice versa. By 1872, however, we had both rainfall and sun-spot observations, and the cycle of the latter had been made out. Meldrum, the most distinguished meteorologist living at the time, and others, pronounced that the rainfall was greatest at sun-spot maximum, and, further, that the greatest number of cyclones occurred in the East and West Indies at the same time. This result with regard to rainfall was not generally accepted, but Chambers showed shortly afterwards an undoubted connection between the cycles of solar spots and barometric pressure in the Indian area. An attempt has been recently made to study the temperature history of the sun since 1877, and the years of mean temperature, and when the heat was in excess and defect. In the year 1900 Camille Flammarion, the French scientist, observed the great sun spots, including the one discovered by Abbe Mareux, and predicted that the earth was about to enter upon a period of five years, the summers of which would be the hottest in its history. Continuing a discussion of the relation between sun spots and weather, the Chicago Chronicle of July 28, 1901, states as follows: Camille Flammarion bids fair to make good his prophecy. Yet even now meteorologists and astronomers refuse to believe that he has established any direct connection between terrestrial weather and spots on the sun. Such a connection has for a long time been suspected, but nothing definite in the way of a law has been discovered. That we shall soon be in a position to forecast the seasons by means of a study of the chemical or physical condition of the sun seems likely. The sun, far from being a great star of unvarying physical characteristics, varies very materially and is very much hotter and brighter at certain periods than it is at others. Its probable temperature at its normal state is about 12,632 F., or 7,000 C., but its radiation of heat year by year is not even, so that in certain years the earth receives much more heat than it does in others, and in consequence important meteorologic changes are set up, the precise nature of which science seems to be just on the edge of unraveling. For instance, the British astronomer Sir Norman Lockyer has just announced his conclusion that the seasonal rainfall and great heats in India follow certain changes in the sun, and that the famines of India, which bring such unspeakable misery and woe to the teeming millions of this unfortunate country, can be forecast from known solar changes. But as the weather of India is not an isolated phenomenon, but is interlocked with that of Africa and this in turn with that of the Western Hemisphere, a weather cycle in one country is unquestionably duplicated in others. At present, however, no one has worked out the data for the north temperate zone sufficiently to discover what this cyclical change in our weather is that follows the variation of the physical state of the sun. Sir Norman, however, believes we shall get at the law of change before long and will be able to' forecast weather over long periods by a study of the sun's surface. For instance, a huge sun spot was observed in the sun recently which was of such magnitude as to cause much surprise among astronomers, since the sun is now at a period when the sun spots are the least frequent. Conditions are, however, shaping themselves for a period of numerous sun spots in 1904, of which the huge spot observed this spring is the forerunner. Those who are inclined to jump at conclusions connect the abnormal summer of 1900 with the big spot seen during that summer, while the recent hot wave is blamed on the big spot of June, 1901. And they recall the successful forecast of Abbe Mareux, who, basing his views on the sun-spot activities of the spring of 1900, predicted a hot summer. But the scientific world is not convinced that the data show that the hotter sun is followed by hotter terrestrial weather, though it is convinced that there is a law connecting solar changes with weather changes in the earth, even though it is marked in its operation. Sir Norman in the case of India has found that the famine years precede the period when the sun is normal, while the seasonable rainfall that relieves the drought follows this" normal period invariably. If anything retards the return to the normal period, which has been the case from the year 1897 on, the drought and famine periods are prolonged. Following up this discovery, which is connected with the eleven-year period in sun-spot variation, W. J. S. Lockyer has made another and exceedingly important discovery, that underlying the ordinary sun-spot period of eleven years there is another cycle of greater length, namely, about thirty-five years, and that this cycle not only alters the time of the occurrence of the period of least frequency, but also causes changes in the total spotted area of the sun from one eleven-year period to another. As it is known that the presence of sun spots does affect the frequency of the aurora borealis and the magnetic phenomena on the earth, great sun spots being followed by magnetic storms that disturb telegraph and telephone systems the world over, Mr. Lockyer has found there is a thirty-five year period in magnetic phenomena, as he puts it: ''There seems little doubt that during the interval of time covered by the present sun-spot discussion the meteorological phenomena, number of aurora, and magnetic storms show secular variations of a period of about thirty-five years, the epochs of which harmonize with those of the secular variations of sun spots. As we are beginning to approach another maximum of sun spots which should correspond both in intensity and in time of occurrence after the epoch of the present minimum with that of 1870-1878, it will be interesting to observe whether all the solar, meteorological, and magnetical phenomena of that period will be repeated. "If there is a more or less exact repetition of meteorological phenomena with the return of the thirty-five year period, then the summer of 1901 should be somewhat like the summer of 1867 and the summers of 1902, 1903, 1904 like those of 1868, 1869, and 1870. If this be so, we are not in for a hot summer (in 1901 ), as absurd as this may seem in view of the record-breaking character of July, but for a series of cool summers. For, according to the Pennsylvania Hospital records, there were only six days during June, July, August, and September, 1867, when the thermometer ran above 90, while 1868 .for the same months only recorded twelve days above 90; 1869, fourteen, and 1870, thirty-three days, with the highest temperature only 98. Moreover, June, 1867, had a rainfall of 11.03 inches, while last June, 1901, had o. ly 1.15 inches to its credit." From this it would appear that however the thirty-five year cycle may apply for great areas of the earth's surface in the matter of climate variation, Philadelphia hardly reveals it in its recent brand of weather. And yet weather ought to follow general changes, for those who believe the variation in the sun's physical stresses affect the weather are agreed generally that it does it by changes in what are known as the areas of high barometer that belt the globe in the Tropics over the oceans in the summer time. If this theory be correct, our summer weather ought to be determined by the effect of the sun spots on the oceanic high-pressure areas. And the way in which variations in these high-pressure areas affect our weather can be seen by glancing at the United States hydrographic chart, which shows the normal barometric pressure in inches, as well as the normal temperature lines and the resulting circulation of winds. If the Atlantic high-pressure area is shifted toward the Atlantic coast of the United States, it gives us a circulation that is tropical, and if the pressure continues high over the coast, the whole eastward-moving drift of weather over the continent is held up and a hot wave results, which can not be broken up until the Atlantic pressure is reduced. The question whether a summer in the United States will be abnormally hot is therefore merely a question as to whether the high pressure over the Atlantic will be shifted toward Bermuda and the Atlantic coast. Of course, such a shift means a shift in the high pressures of the Pacific and Indian oceans, for what affects one great system affects the other, and so the weather all the world around is affected. That a sun spot should be able to affect terrestrial weather can not be considered remarkable when it is remembered that the spots are evidence of tremendous activities in the sun, being nothing more than huge cyclonic disturbances deep down in the photosphere, often 2,000,000 square miles in area, from whose vortices, in which many earths might float, prominences are whirled miles above the sun's surface. Moreover, the photosphere is more brilliant and hot about the spots than anywhere else on the sun's surface. It has been argued that, inasmuch as the sun spots occupy only an infinitesimal space on the surface of the sun, they are too minute to affect the meteorological results with which they are associated. But Sir Norman Lockyer points out that the greater disturbance of certain zones of solar latitude is more influential than the amount of spotted area determined from spots in various latitudes. Sun spots may be only millionths of the area, but these prominences form one-sixth of the sun's visible hemisphere, and with these in a state of disturbance the effects upon the earth are very important. The sun spots themselves are only a very feeble indication of the fierce activity of the sun. We are observing those prominences more carefully than we have been able to do in the past. We are taking advantage of new methods of observation, and in a few years we shall be in a much better position than we are now to study the connection of solar and terrestrial meteorology. As the situation shapes up to-day the scientific world is on the lookout for laws of causation that connect solar changes with the great droughts, great floods, and excessive heat waves that mark our weather at different periods. And it looks as if some clever observer would soon wrest the secret from the sun spots and the vagaries of American summer weather even if none of the suggested periods seem to be revealed in the actual recorded weather data. It appears, in fact, that while a consensus of opinion of those who have contributed to sun-spot literature is, that solar disturbances, as indicated by sun spots, affect the earth's magnetic and electrical conditions, a definite relation between sun spots and meteorological conditions has not been established. It is, however, possible and even probable, that longer periods of observation will permit comparisons that may define concurrent cycles in sun spots and weather. The idea that the sun controls not only the character of the weather experienced in the several seasons, but also the ordinary and extraordinary weather changes to which we are subjected from day to day, is a popular one, and discoveries in this direction will be welcomed by the meteorologist and the layman. THE MOON AND THE WEATHER. That the moon has a controlling influence in matters meteorological is a fixed belief in the minds of the masses, and evidence to the contrary, in the form of weather records that fail utterly to show any connection between moon changes and the weather, has been, and is likely to be, insufficient to change this belief. The following remarks, pertinent to this subject, appear in the Baltimore Sun of December 6, 1900: The eminent astronomer, Sir John Herschel, at one time, from very insufficient data, investigated the subject, and, thinking he had discovered a connection between the moon's changes and the weather, constructed tables based upon the time at which the moon's changes occur before and after noon and midnight. It is, however, greatly to Sir John's credit, that he afterwards thoroughly investigated the subject with a much more complete and extensive series of weather records, and proved conclusively that there is no connection whatever between the moon's changes and the weather, unless it were a slight tendency to clearer skies at night at the time of full moon. The most exhaustive investigations made since then have shown conclusively the correctness of Herschel's later conclusions, except that they discredit any tendency of the full moon to produce clear skies. There are only three possible ways in which the moon could have any physical connection with the weather or influence it in any way whatever. The first is by reason of the heating effect of the lunar rays upon the earth and its atmosphere. The heating effect of the moon's rays has been measured and found to be less than one hundred-thousandth as much as those of the sun. Such a small amount of heat added to the sun's heat would be absolutely insensible. Another possible way in which it has been thought the moon might influence the weather is by producing atmospheric tides, and, as the ocean tides caused by the moon are greater than those caused by the sun, it was at one time thought that this might be the connection. It has, however, required the most careful investigation to show any atmospheric tides caused by the moon's attraction. A minute effect has been found, but it is too small to be of any importance. The reason why the moon produces greater oceanic tides than the sun is not that its attraction is greater than that of the sun, for as a matter of fact the sun's attraction on the earth is nearly two hundred times as great as that of the moon, whereas the moon's tide-rising power is about two and one-half times as great as the sun's. This is because the sun is four hundred times as far off, and the difference in the attraction for the body upon the nearest and the farthest side of the earth and for the center of the earth is greater in the case of the moon than the sun, so that on the nearest side, the water being mobile and the body of the earth rigid, the water is pulled away from the earth, and on the farther side the earth is pulled away from the water to a greater extent by the moon than by the sun. The only other way in which the moon could possibly influence the weather is by magnetic effects. It does have a measurable effect upon the earth's magnetism, but it lias never been shown that variations in the earth's magnetism materially influence the weather, although the variations of the atmospheric electricity is greatly influenced by weather conditions. The so-called wet or dry moons (and, by the way, there is much difference of opinion as to which is the wet and which is the dry moon) , or the inclination of the crescent moon to the horizon, are popularly supposed to indicate the weather for the following month. But this inclination of the crescent to the horizon depends mostly upon the inclination of the ecliptic, an hour or two east of the sun to the horizon, and, to a small extent only, to the latitude of the moon north or south of the ecliptic. The inclination of the ecliptic to the horizon depends upon the time of year, and similar wet or dry moons will always occur about the same time of the year. According to M. Demtchinski, a Eussian engineer and scientist, the attraction of the moon is the chief factor in determining the weather. M. Demtchinski read a paper in September, 1900, before the Meteorological Congress in Paris, "On the possibility of making exact forecasts of the weather for any period in advance." It is said that the data communicated to the congress, supplemented by subsequent results, afford ground for the conviction that the weather may be predicted several years beforehand. M. Demtchinski has such faith in his theory that he has undertaken the publication at St. Petersburg of a semimonthly journal, Climate, which is printed in four languages, English, French, Russian, and German, and which undertakes to predict the weather over almost the whole northern hemisphere. The first number of Climate appeared March 1, and each number is to be issued sufficiently early to reach the most distant points for which predictions are made before the commencement of the fortnight to which they refer. Thus the Russian forecasts for the first fortnight of May will come out in the beginning of April. We are assured that the theory has already stood the test of experience. Last year, for example, the day of the morning frosts in May was duly predicted for the Moscow region. In like manner, the eight days' dry period in June was forecast, with the practical suggestion to farmers in central Russia to save their hay. The Russian press for the month of March contained an article by M. Demtchinski giving . a forecast of the harvest (spring and winter corn) to be expected in Russia, which was fully borne out by the result. The September frosts and the beginning of the Russian winter were predicted with equal accuracy. Finally, to an inquiry addressed by the Volga shipowners to M. Demtchinski when to expect the closing of navigation, the latter wired in reply, a month beforehand, "Navigation will close the 20th October," which was exactly fulfilled. The theoretical questions which Climate is to encourage are to be concentrated on the question of the influence of the moon on the weather, and M. Poincare, a French mathematician and meteorologist, has an article on the subject in the first number. In the estimation of unscientific observers the moon has a great deal to do with the weather, and it is possible that European scientists have discovered the principle upon which it exerts the mysterious influence which every weatherwise rustic has observed from the time when the memory of man runneth not to the contrary. The following are among oft-quoted sayings regarding the moon that refer to its influence upon weather conditions for considerable periods in advance: If three days old her face be bright and clear, No rain or stormy gale the sailors fear; But if she rise with bright and blushing cheek, The blustering winds the bending mast will shake. If dull her face and blunt her horns appear, On the fourth day a breeze or rain is near. If on the third she move with horns direct, Not pointing downward or to heaven erect, The western wind expect; and drenching rain, If on the fourth her horns direct remain. If to -the earth her uppor horn she bend, Cold Boreas from the north his blast will send; If upward she extend it to the sky, Loud Notus with his blustering gale is nigh. When the fourth day around her orb is spread A circling ring of deep and murky red, Soon from his cave the God of Storms will rise, Dashing with foamy waves the lowering skies. And when fair Cynthia her full orb displays, Or when unveiled to sight are half her rays-, Then mark the various hues that paint her face, And thus the fickle weather's changes trace. If smile her pearly face benign and fair, Calm and serene will breathe the balmy air; If with deep blush her maiden cheek be red, Then boisterous wind the cautious sailors dread; If sullen blackness hang upon her brow, From clouds as black will rainy torrents flow. Not through the month their power these signs extend, But all their influence with the quarter end. -- J. Lamb's "Aratu." If the new moon, first quarter, full moon, last quarter, occur between -- Summer: 12 and 2 a. m., fair; 2 and 4 a. m., cold and showers; 4 and 6 a. m., rain; 6 and 8 a. m., wind and rain; 8 to 10 a. m., changeable; 10 a. m. to 12 m., frequent showers; 12 to 2 p. m., very rainy; 2 and 4 p. m., changeable; 4 and 6 p. m., fair; 6 and 8 p. m., fair, if wind northwest; 8 and 10 p. m., rainy, if wind south or southwest; 10 to 12 p. m., fair. Winter: 12 and 2 a. m., frost, unless wind southwest; 2 and 4 a. m., snow and stormy; 4 and 6 a. m., rain; 6 and 8 a. m., stormy; 8 and 10 a. m., cold rain if wind west; 10 and 12 m., cold and high wind; 12 and 2 p. m., snow and rain; 2 and 4 p. m., fair and mild; 4 and 6 p. m., fair; 6 and 8 p. m., fair and frosty if wind northeast or north; 8 and 10 p. m., rain or snow if wind south or southwest; 10 to 12 p. m., fair and frosty. The above is the table credited to Sir John Herschel. It is claimed, also, that he was not responsible for the table. In any case it is within the power of anyone to test its accuracy as applied to the United States. If the new moon appear with the points of the crescent turned up the month will be dry. If the points are turned down it will be wet. [Note. Many sailors believe in the direct opposite of the above. The belief is explained as follows: First If the crescent will hold water the month will be dry; if not, it will be wet. Second If the Indian hunter could hang his powderhorn on the crescent he did so, and stayed at home, because he knew that the woods would be too dry to still hunt. If he could not hang his powderhorn upon the crescent he put it on his shoulder and went hunting, because he knew that the woods would be wet and that he could stalk game noiselessly.] When the moon lies on her back, Then the sou' -west wind will crack; When she rises up and nods, Than north-easters dry the sod. Reviewer in Symons' Meteorological Magazine, September, 1867. When the moon lies on her back, She sucks the wet into her lap. -- Ellesmere. It is sure to be a dry moon if it lies on its back, so you can hang your hat on its horns. Welsh Border. It appears from the foregoing that popular interpretations of weather indications furnished by the crescent moon differ, and are, in fact, of an opposite character among different classes of people. It is the privilege, therefore, of any and all interested to fit the forecasts to the position of the moon, and, in instances where the results are not satisfactory, to assume that a reverse position of the crescent would satisfy the requirements of the theory. Go plant the bean when the moon is light, And you will find that this is right; Plant the potatoes when the moon is dark, And to this line you always hark; But if you vary from this rule, You will find you are a fool; If you always follow this rule to the end, You will always have money to spend. There is a belief in the minds of many persons that certain vegetables and plants should be seeded or planted during certain phases of the moon. The fact that moon phases are not considered where the processes of seeding and planting are conducted on a large scale and with the strictest regard to business and economic methods appears to refute this belief. That moonbeams or rays produce certain chemical results seems certain. It is known that fish and some kinds of meat are injured or spoiled when exposed to the light of the moon. To this fact the saying that hogs should be slaughtered in the dark of the moon undoubtedly owes its origin. In the larger hog and cattle slaughtering plants the carcasses and meat are not exposed to the moon's rays; the saying applies, therefore, to primitive out-of-door methods of slaughtering and hog killing. There is a negro saying that "Chickens should be picked in the dark of the moon." It is perhaps unnecessary to remark that while this saying, in common with other misapplied sayings, can not he properly classed as a weather proverb, a conjunction of a dark-of-the-moon period and a dark, cloudy, and rainy night is most favorable to a practical application of the saying. THE STARS AND THE WEATHER. There is a kind of weather-lore that has been greatly misinterpreted, in many cases, from a failure to recognize its origin. Before the establishment of the calendar and the setting in order of the period months and seasons of the solar year, it was very necessary to determine the approach of each season in order to facilitate farming operations. At the first this could be done only by watching the rising and setting of the constellations. Thus Hesiod says that when the Pleiades rise the harvest begins. Such sayings have been interpreted as indicating the actual benefit of malevolent influence from stars, but seem, in the first instance, to have depended simply on the necessities of the observer. So the piece of weather lore contained in Job, referring to the sweet influences of the Pleiades, depends on nothing more than the indication of the coming season, as shown by the appearance of these stars. St. Louis Star, February 24, 1901. The Egyptians and Greeks conducted systematic observations in special buildings which might with justice be termed observatories, albeit not supplied, like ours, with means and methods of a high and complicated order. The great pyramid of Cheops has been claimed for such an observatory, and some writers assume that from an opening in its side the learned priests watched the transits of the stars and the rising of the constellations to determine the march of the various seasons suitable for agriculture or for the irrigation of the people's lands. ANIMALS, BIRDS, ETC. There is a mistaken belief that some animals possess a faculty that permits them to anticipate the character of the weather for the coming season. The faculty possessed by animals to interpret the signs of coming weather changes is limited to an instinctive appreciation of present atmospheric conditions, which are indicative of certain weather changes for periods of probably one to twelve hours in advance. It is evident upon consideration that the physical condition of animals, and the thickness of the fur of fur-bearing animals, depends upon the weather of the past and the extent to which it has affected their food supply and general health, rather than upon the weather of the future. And the line of reasoning also applies to plants which are made the subject of future-weather sayings. Dr. C. C. Abbott showed that the autumnal habits of certain animals that are popularly supposed to be indicative of the character of the coming winter could not be depended upon, although by the majority of people living in the country they were considered as sure indications of what the coming winter would prove to be. Dr. Abbott had kept a careful record, extending over twenty years, regarding the building of winter houses by muskrats, the storing of nuts by squirrels, and other habits of these mammals, and had found that the habits referred to, or their omission, in certain autumns bore no relation to the character of the coming winter. Trenton Natural Historical Society meeting, February 13, 1883. The following are well-known long-range weather sayings based upon the observed or supposed habits of animals and birds and the appearance and condition of certain plants. It is proper in this connection to again remark that careful investigation has failed to attach a value to sayings of this class: In early and long winters the beaver cuts his winter supply of wood and prepares his house one month earlier than in mild, late winters. The beaver begins his preparations for winter when the cold weather sets in; in early winters the cold naturally sets in earlier than in late winters. Previous to the setting in of winter the mole prepares a sort of basin, forming it in a bed of clay, which will hold about a quart. In this basin a quantity of worms is deposited; and, in order to prevent their escape, they are partly mutilated, but not so much as to kill them. On these worms the moles feed in the winter months. When these basins are few in number the following winter will be mild. Gardener's Chronicle. The mole, like the beaver, doubtless begins his preparations for the winter when the cold weather sets in; when the cold comes on suddenly and the ground freezes the work of storing worms is interrupted, and the sign is therefore potent only in cases where early spells of cold are followed by comparatively mild winter weather. Observe which way the hedgehog builds her nest, To front the north or south, or east or west; For if 'tis true what common people say, The wind will blow the quite contrary way. If by some secret art the hedgehog knows, So long before, the way in which the winds will blow, She has an art which many a person lacks That thinks himself fit to make our almanacks. -- Poor Robin's Almanack, 1733. The hedgehog commonly hath two holes or vents in his den or cave, the one toward the south and the other toward the north; and look which of them he stops, thence will great storms and winds follow. Husbandman's Practice. The hedgehog undoubtedly stops the windward vent after the wind begins to blow. If the cat is basking in the sun in February it must go again to the stove in March. (German.) The average winter shows warm periods in February and cold periods in March. When bears lay up food in the fall it indicates a cold winter. If the tracks of bear are seen after the first fall of snow an open mild winter may be expected. The bear comes out on the 2d of February (Candlemas day), and if he sees his shadow he returns for six weeks. If on Candlemas day (February 2) it is bright and clear, the ground-hog will stay in his den, thus indicating that more snow and cold are to come; but if it snows or rains he will creep out, as the winter is ended. (German.) In cold and early winters the chipmunk is very abundant on the south shore of Lake Superior, and are always housed for the winter in October. In short and mild winters they are seen until the 1st of December. When the flying squirrels sing in midwinter it indicates an early spring. When the ground squirrel is seen in winter it is a sign that snow is about over. When squirrels and small animals lay away a larger supply of food than usual it indicates that a long and severe winter will follow. When squirrels are scarce in autumn it indicates a cold winter. The actions of animals, referred to in the sayings quoted, are governed by conditions that exist at the time, and not by a knowledge of future weather conditions. When birds of passage arrive early in their southern passage severe weather may be looked for soon. When summer birds take their flight summer goes with them. Wild geese moving south indicates approaching cold weather; moving north indicates that most of the winter is over. When wild geese fly to the southeast in the fall, in Kansas, expect a blizzard. Wild geese flying .directly south and very high indicates a very cold winter. When flying low and remaining along the river, in Idaho, they indicate a warm winter. For spring, just the reverse when flying north. Wild geese flying past large bodies of water indicates change of weather. Going south, cold; going north, warm. Wild ducks scattered around the lakes near Lake Superior form in large flocks and go south one month earlier in cold or early winters than in mild or pleasant winters. If cranes appear early in the autumn expect a severe winter. When the cranes early (in October) fly southward it indicates a cold winter. The swan builds its nest high before high waters, but low when there will not be unusual rains. An early appearance of the woodcock indicates the approach of a severe winter. If crows fly south a severe winter may be expected; if they fly north, the reverse. When the woodpecker leaves expect a hard winter. When woodpeckers peck low on the trees expect warm weather. The ivory-billed woodpecker commencing at the bottom end of a tree and going to the top, removing all the outer bark, indicates a hard winter, with deep snow. Field larks congregating in flocks indicates severe cold. When wrens are seen in winter expect snow. When martins appear winter is broken. No killing frost after martins. First robins indicate the approach of spring. If the November goose bone be thick, So will the winter weather be; If the November goose bone be thin, So will the winter weather be. If the breastbone of a goose is red, or has many red spots, expect a cold and stormy winter; but if only a few spots are visible the winter will be mild. The whiteness of a goose's breastbone is superstitiously thought to indicate or foreshow the amount of snow during winter. Birds, like animals, respond to present, rather than to future, weather conditions. Birds of passage begin their southern migration with the first chilling temperatures of autumn, and out travel the southward advance of the colder weather; and they begin their northern journey when spring temperatures set in at their winter quarters. That their flights are sometimes premature is apparent to close observers. As regards goose bones, the fact can readily be demonstrated that breastbones of geese, selected with a due regard to time and condition, are contradictory, both as regards their character and the manner of their interpretation. DAYS, MONTHS, SEASONS, AND YEARS. Among the first attempts at weather guesses, those concerning the seasons and their probable fitness for agriculture, the breeding of animals, or the navigation of the seas would probably take a prominent place. The weather, during the winter and spring, seems to have been narrowly watched, and the chances of a good harvest, a fat pasture, or a loaded orchard inferred from the experience of previous years, combined with a fair reliance upon fortune. Some of these predictions, though not strengthened by modern observation, are not to be altogether despised or thrown aside. They at least show us what kind of weather our forefathers wished to take place and thought most useful at the times to which they refer. The sayings of French, Scotch, and English agree in many particulars such, for instance, as those referring to Candlemas day and the early part of February generally. It seems that, according to the notion of our ancestors, this part of the year could not be too cold, and no statistical evidence will ever make our farmers believe that a warm Christmas bodes well for an English harvest, or that a dry year ever did harm to England. Some of these old sayings are also interesting as perhaps indicating the slowly changing climate of England, and it is not unlikely that at some distant date most of the predictions will be found inapplicable. Particular saints' days have been selected as exerting special influence over the weather, and here we are constantly treading on the fringes of the veil of superstition, spread by ignorance over all matters about which but little certain knowledge exists. There are, however, still believers in St. Swithin and St. Valentine as weather prophets; and if their favorites do sometimes fail to bring the expected changes, they have at least no worse guides than those furnished by the Old Moore's and Zadkiel's of modern times. In considering the weather proverbs regarding certain days, it must be remembered that the new style was first adopted September 2, 1752, eleven days being retrenched from the calendar, i.e., August 22 to September 1, 1752, had no existence in England. Weather Lore. DAYS. As the days lengthen, So the cold strengthens. As the days begin to shorten, The heat begins to scorch them. Fine and unusually warm days during the colder months are called "weather breeders." If St. Vincent's (January 22) has sunshine, One hopes much rye and wine. If St. Paul's (January 25) is bright and clear, One does hope a good year. Candlemas Day! Candlemas Day! (February 2) Half our fire and half our hay. (That is, we are midway through winter and ought to have half our fuel and hay) At Candlemas Day another winter is on its way. If Candlemas Day be fine and clear, Corn and fruits will then be dear. The shepard would rather see the wolf enter his fold on Candlemas Day than the sun. If Candlemas Day be fair and bright, Winter will have another flight. But if Candlemas Day bring clouds and rain, Winter is gone and won't come again. On Candlemas Day the bear, badger, or woodchuck comes out to see his shadow at noon; if he does not see it, he remains out; but if he does see it he goes back to his hole for six weeks, and cold weather continues for six weeks longer. If the ground hog is sunning himself on the 2d of February, he will return for four weeks to his winter quarters. If a storm on February 2, spring is near; but if that day be bright and clear, the spring will be late. To St. Valentine the spring is a neighbor. French. The crocus was dedicated to St. Valentine, and ought to blossom about this time. Circle of the Seasons. March many weathers rained and blowed, But March grass never did good. -- Fuller. Dust in March brings grass and foliage. Snow in March is bad for fruit and grapevine. March comes in like a lamb and goes out like a lion. March in January, January in March, I fear. When March has April weather, April will have March weather. French. March winds and April showers, Bring forth May flowers. St. Patrick's Day (March 17) the warm side of a stone turns up, and the broadback goose begins to lay. 1 s't on St. Joseph's Day (March 19) clear, So follows a fertile year. 1 s't on St. Mary's (March 25) bright and clear, Fertile is said to be the year. The flower cardamine, or lady's-smock, with its milk-white flowers, is dedicated to the Virgin Mary, and appears about Lady Day (March 25). If it thunders on All Fools' Day, It brings good crops of corn and hay. Hoar-frost on May 1 indicates a good harvest. If on the 8th of May it rain, It fortells a wet harvest, men sain. -- T. Fuller. Rain on St. Barnabas's Day (June 11) good for grapes. Before St. John's Day (June 24) we pray for rain, after that we get it anyhow. Rain on St. John's Day, damage to nuts. As the dog days (July 3 to August 11) commence, so they end. Dog days bright and clear Indicate a good year; But when accompanied by rain, We hope for better times in vain In this month is St. Swithin' s Day (July 15) On which, if that it rain, they say Full forty days after it will Or more or less some rain distill. -- Poor Robin's Almanack, 1697. All the tears that St. Swithin can cry, St. Barthelemy's dusty mantle wipes dry. -- French. Alluding to the wet usually prevalent about the middle of July, the saying is: "St. Mary Magdalene is washing her handkerchief to go to her cousin St. James's fair. Folk-Lore Journal. St. Margeret's flood is proverbial, and it is considered to be well for the harvest in England. (August 1, old style; August 13, new style.) St. Barthelemy's (August 24) mantle wipes dry All the tears that St. Swithin can cry. If the 24th of August be fair and clear, Then hope for a prosperous autumn that year. September 15 is said to be a fine day six years out of seven. St. Matthew's Day (September 21) makes the days and nights equal. If St. Michael (September 29) brings many acorns, Christmas will cover the fields with snow. There is often, about October 18, a spell of fine, dry weather, and this has received the name of St. Luke's little summer. On the 1st of November (All Saints' Day), if the weather hold clear, An end of wheat sowing do make for the year. If All Saints' Day will bring out the winter, St. Martin's Day will bring out Indian summer. ( United States. ) If on All Saints' Day the beechnut is dry we shall have a hard winter; but if the nut be wet and not light, we may expect a wet winter. If it is at Martinmas (November 11) fair, dry, and cold, the cold in winter will not last long. If the leaves of the trees and grape vines do not fall before Martin's Day, a cold winter may be expected. Expect St. Martin's summer, halcyon days. Shakespeare. The fourteen halcyon days then began (December 11) days in which in the Mediterrean a calm weather was expected, so that the halcyon or hawk could (it was supposed) make its nest on the surface of the sea. Virgil. A green Christmas makes a fat churchyard. A green Christmas brings a heavy harvest. If Christmas finds a bridge, he'll break it; if he finds none, he'll make one. Wednesday clearing, clear till Sunday. If on Friday it rain, 'Twill on Sunday again; If Friday be clear, Have for Sunday no fear. When it storms on the first Sunday in the month, it will storm every Sunday during that month. The character of the weather on holidays and church or saints' days, when the masses of the people have forsaken their usual occupations in favor of out-of-door recreation, or the donning of the best wearing apparel, has naturally been a subject of unusual interest and special note. And it has followed from this fact that these days have been, to a greater extent than the ordinary working days, a basis for weather speculation. It will be noted that all sayings relating to these days are of value only so far as it may be assumed that normal weather conditions on those days are favorable and abnormal conditions are unfavorable for seasonable weather in the near future. They may be considered as indicating which way the balance of temperature and precipitation tips at that particular season of the year, and the forecasting feature is found in the statement of weather conditions that will be required to adjust the balance. MONTHS. The month that comes in good will go out bad. A favorable January brings us a good year. January warm, the Lord have mercy! If grass grows in January, it grows the worse for it all the year. Always expect a thaw in January. If there is no snow before January, there will be the more in March and April. A warm January, a cold May. There is always one fine week in February. If February gives much snow, A fine summer it doth foreshow. February rain is only good to fill ditches. Thunder in February or March, poor sugar (rnaple) year. Winds in March and rains in April promise great blessings in May. As it rains in March, so it rains in June. A dry and cold March never begs its bread. March flowers make no summer bowers. March comes in like a lamb and goes out like a lion. March comes in like a lion, goes out like a lamb. March in January, January in March, I fear. March damp and warm will do the farmer much harm. When March has April weather, April will have March weather. March winds and April showers bring forth May flowers. A cold April the barn will fill. Moist April, clear June. Till April's dead, change not a thread (of clothing). Dry May brings nothing. May damp and cool fills the barns and wine vats. A hot May makes a fat churchyard. To be hoped for, like rain in May. A dry May is followed by a wet June. Wet May, dry July. Calm weather in June sets corn in tune. June damp and warm does not make the farmer poor. A cold and wet June spoils the rest of the year. It never clouds up in a June night for rain. July, God send thee calm and fayre, That happy harvest we may see. As July, so the next January. Ne'er trust a July sky. Whatever July and August do boil, September can not fry. As August, so the next February. When it rains in August it rains honey and wine. Dry August and warm Doth harvest no harm. As September, so the coming March. A wet September, drought for next summer. (California.) Heavy September rains bring drought. (United States. ) Much rain in October, much wind in December. Warm October, cold February. If October bring heavy frosts and winds, then will January and February be mild. As the weather in October, so will it be in the next March. As November, so the following March. December cold with snow, good for rye. SEASONS. A late spring, a great blessing. Better late spring and bear, than early blossom and blast. A late spring never deceives. If the spring is cold and wet, then the autumn will be cold and dry. A dry spring, rainy summer. Early thunder, early spring. Generally a moist and cool summer portends a hard winter. Bacon. A pleasant autumn and a mild winter will cause the leaves to fall next September. A hot and dry summer and autumn, especially if the heat and drought extend far into September, portend an open beginning of winter, and cold to succeed toward the latter part of the winter and beginning of spring. Bacon. Who doffs his coat on a winter's day Will gladly put it on in May. There can never be too much rain before midsummer. If we do not get our Indian summer in October or November, we shall get it in the winter. (United States.) A late spring is good for corn, but bad for cattle. A moist autumn, with a mild winter, is followed by a cold and dry spring, retarding vegetation. After a rainy winter follows a fruitful spring. A green winter makes a fat churchyard. An abundant wheat crop does not follow a mild winter. Farmer, quoted in "Notes and Queries." A severe autumn denotes a windy summer, A windy winter a rainy spring, A rainy spring a severe .summer, A severe summer a windy autumn; So that the air in balance is Seldom debtor unto itself. -- Bacon. If the spring is wet and cold, the autumn will be hot and dry. A warm and open winter portends a hot and dry summer. Bacon. Midsummer rain spoils wine, stock, and grain. A warm winter and cold summer never brought a good harvest. French. Winter will not come till the swamps are full. ( United States. ) Winter's back breaks about the middle of February. Winter under water, dearth; under snow, bread. YEARS. A bad year comes in swimming. French. After a wet year a cold one. Wet and dry years come in triads. Rainy year, fruit dear. Frost year, good year. Snow year, good year. In the year that plums flourish all else fails. (Devonshire.) Year of radishes, year of health. A cow year, a sad year; a bull year, a glad year. Dutch. A year of grass, good for nothing else. (Switzerland. ) Leap year was ne'er a good sheep year. (Scotland. ) A dry summer through the central part of the United States signifies a deficiency in the corn crop, which means that our ham and bacon will cost us more during the following winter. A wet spring in the wheat belt means a higher price for flour. Unseasonable weather in the South signifies that a few months later we shall be obliged to pay more for cotton goods. A frost in Florida means a higher price for oranges. AN INNOVATION IN BAROMETRIC OBSERVATION. In the Monthly Weather Review for January, 1903, the Chief of the United States Weather Bureau introduces a new feature. Among the charts hitherto appearing in that publication has been one showing the mean barometric pressure over the whole country for a month, the readings having been reduced to sea level. It is now proposed to supplement this with two more, giving the computed pressures at elevations of 3,500 and 10,000 feet. Prof. Frank H. Bigelow, upon whose recommendation this innovation is made, and who has, by an elaborate research, made possible the preparation of such charts, hopes that they may in time be of assistance in "seasonal," or long-range, forecasting. Additional data will be required, he says. It will be necessary to know something about temperatures and humidity at the same altitudes. Until these are all available study of the problem can not bear much fruit. Still, a beginning is to be made; and the first step is to note how far the actual pressure for a month at various levels differs from the average of corresponding periods for many years. Up to the present time no systematic and public predictions of the character here contemplated have been made under governmental auspices anywhere in the world except in India. Those are based on local principles, and are not applicable elsewhere. One factor, for instance, is the weight of the snowfall in the Himalayas during the previous winter. The outcome, too, has not been especially encouraging. Whatever be the success of Professor Bigelow's plan, it is already obvious that its basis is far more rational and his method less empirical than any other which has yet been proposed. He does not, it is safe to assume, expect to be able to indicate the exact details for any particular date and spot, as countless "cranks" attempt to do. The utmost which it will ever be feasible to accomplish in the long-range work, it may be confidently asserted, is to outline the general situation over comparatively wide areas for two or three weeks, or perhaps a month or more, in advance. Yet, if nothing more is accomplished than this a correct hint of a tendency toward even a trifling excess of heat or cold and a disposition toward an abundance or scarcity of rain the benefit to the country will be enormous. It is not incredible that a second advantage may be secured from a more careful examination of conditions existing at two or three standard planes in the upper air. When actual temperatures at various elevations above the earth are ascertained by means of kites, it is found that the rate of decrease with height is not uniform. Sometimes it is more rapid than the established average, and sometimes it is slower. A knowledge of the existence of these abnormal temperatures might help the forecaster in the short-range work now officially sanctioned. At present the Government meteorologists are bothered by several eccentricities in the behavior of those barometric depressions which constitute the chief feature of all daily maps. One is a departure from the ordinary routes which low areas follow in crossing the country; a second is a remarkable variation in their speed; and the third is uncertainty about the amount of rain which will attend them. The last is the most serious in its effects, but they are all highly embarrassing. If, by minimizing such uncertainties, a study of the upper air will improve the daily forecasts, it should be pushed as far as is practicable. At times, the Government service, while all that the present state of meteorological science will permit, perhaps, is far from realizing the ideal of its founders or the demands of the public. If anything better is possible, the country wants it. New York Daily Tribune, April 30, 1903. End of Text. This (complete) title is available in the SSRsi Survival Library Return to the Outdoor Survival or General Survival, the Family Affairs or Family Camping Pages
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