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Y2K Family and Community Awareness
September 1998
I was hesitant to approach my family about Y2K at
first. I figured they would label me an alarmist, believing everything I read on
the internet. Because I could not find a positive thread in all my Y2K
research, I became very concerned and felt compelled to inform them of my
findings. I found out from our phone conversation that they had heard
something about Y2K but had not paid much attention to it. They listened
in disbelief as I rattled on about all sorts of things. I ended our conversation
with a promise to write up a factual document and send it their way. I
knew facts would speak louder than my opinion. I also spoke with my cousin via
e-mail about the issue. He told me he didn't believe anything would happen
and assured me it would be fixed in time and not to worry.
So I set about the task of gathering as much
factual information as I could find. The result was a 30 page, hand
written document containing compliant progress on a world wide scale. It
also explained the problem and its far reaching effects from a global point of
view to our own governments impact and that of the FAA, public services,
possible impacts and daily life disruptions. The end result was an eye
opening article.
After both my family and cousins received my
document they changed their nonchalant attitude to one of concern. They
came to realize that just in case Y2K does create problems in our local
communities, they probably should stock up on a few essentials. I let them
know they might also look into buying extra prescriptions but they told me that
is not allowed. Hopefully doctors will change their policies next year to
allow people to stock up on medicines they will need in the event computerized
medical records are not available for a period of time due to computer
malfunctions. Even if you do have a medicine that is refillable at your
local pharmacy, they may be experiencing computer problems of their own and if
they can't validate your prescription you may not get it refilled with out
serious delays.
My family thanked me for my informative efforts
and I told them I would keep my finger on the pulse of Y2K though 2000.
I also sleep better at night knowing they are 'aware'. Considering
our distance apart and the possibility of no dial tones or busy circuits and
no-fly zones everywhere with a possible 50% reduction in flights, I will
be comforted in knowing they have prepared and know what to expect to a point.
None of us like to worry about our loved ones especially when we can do
nothing about the situation due to circumstances beyond our control.
Although this article is about how I informed my
family, I thought it was interesting to note the reactions of my friends and
business associates when I was writing previous articles and researching the
information. Many of them are very technical and intelligent people who
have answers for almost anything you can throw at them. I'm always
impressed when I challenge their intellect. At the same time I am also
flabbergasted at their non interest in Y2K. Some of the comments I heard as they
peered over my shoulder looking at my Y2K web sites were:
I notice that many 'teckies' believe in the
'silver bullet' for the most part. This being a program that computers can
use to fix themselves and become compliant
in a very short amount of time. Yet to be developed, and only possible for
a minority of systems, this clearly is not the cure for the majority. My
programming friends feel confident that the piles of code they themselves need
to fix will be fixed in time and don't understand what all the hype is about.
No mention of personal impact. It's strictly business with them with out so much
as batting an eye in the face of such serious possibilities as a global
recession or even a depression. At the moment, my circles, as well as many
others in society, either can't or do not want to see the forest for the tree on
this issue.
We all agree that this is a 'man-made' problem
and can be fixed accordingly, but we don't all agree it can be fixed in time.
Those who believe it will be fixed in time are in denial of the facts. The
odds of fixing everything that needs fixing in time are about as good as buying
the winning power ball lottery ticket. Care to put all your eggs in that basket?
Do you consider that a wise decision?
No one in the general public sector seems able to really believe that we could
possibly wake up Saturday January 1, 2000 and experience a loss of public
services, see food shortages develop as transportation and distribution slows
way down and discover unscheduled bank holidays. These things are simply
unheard of outside of natural disasters in this day and age. Some will
tell you it's impossible here in the states. All you can say to these old
fashion
thinking people is that computers run the show now and if they stop for any
reason so does what ever it is they control. Manual intervention will help
in
some situations but in others the manual processes have been discarded. A good
example of this is the rail road system which is responsible for delivering coal
to the 90% of our analog energy plants and for moving crops in California from
the fields to distribution centers. The manual rail switches have been
replaced with non compliant computer switch systems. If not fixed in time
then the result will be backed up tracks, severely delayed deliveries, some food
shortages and
power plants that will have to cut back on power output by 10-20%.
By this same time next year it should be very
obvious, to anyone who keeps themselves informed, what problems we are likely to
face in the new millennium. The U.S. government will have to inform the people
one way or the other and give the green light to the media to tell the story
like it is on world and local news. Then and only then will the public's
attention be captured and focused as we all head into the infamous Y2K zone!
Together we stand and make it through what
ever it will bring, divided we fall and make it worse for ourselves. If the
people are not publicly informed about the possibilities of disruption then too
many will be caught off guard and angry for not being told what may occur if
mission critical systems are not compliant. Where they channel this anger
is anyone's guess but it will not be pleasant. If we find ourselves
standing in long food, gas or goods lines, you can bet some will be unpleasant,
or worse, some may be down right dangerous. Then again not everyone
believes computers and embedded chips have this kind of control over our lives.
So the news will have little to no effect on these people. Y2K however is a
horse of a different color and should have tremendous effect on them.
What I and many others hope to accomplish with
these Y2K articles is to keep as many people out of these lines as possible and
to help them make life a little easier during the disruption period. The
gas lines may be unavoidable because most of us are not in a position to store
gasoline. But if we find ourselves under leisure travel restrictions it
won't be as bad unless you commute a long way to work. It's quite possible
most of us in non essential jobs will be asked to stay home the first week or
two depending on how things go. That will give us plenty of time to stand in
long lines and gripe about the new developments. Who knows, maybe many new
friendships will develop as a result!
One final note:
As I read the latest Y2K updates I find the new batch overly optimistic and in
contradiction with earlier reports of this year. This is unfortunate
because misinformation will mislead the general public down the 'don't worry be
happy' path of unpreparedness. Unless we hear from very credible sources
late next year
that everyone is Y2K compliant and not to expect any disruptions what so ever;
[guaranteed] and these sources should be: the President of the Unites States,
the U.N. and G8, then expect disruptions and a possible recession as the experts
have warned.
There is no middle ground here. From all I
have read and researched, it is my understanding from both a technical, business
and political point of view that there is going to be a disruption of life
caused by confused and crashed mission critical computer systems all over the
world as well as serious problems caused by bad embedded chips either not found,
replaced or reprogrammed in time.
If any of us experience hardships as a result of
Y2K, it will be most unfortunate. We all have heard the saying, if you are going
to do something do it right the first time. In the context of the times this
monster was created it was thought to have a limited life. The thought of the
two digit date code still running business systems into the 21st century was
absurd to say the least! Now as a result of complacency and
procrastination to fix "the bug" in systems reaching out to all
corners of the world like a spiders web across the globe, January 2000 may have
many unpleasant surprises waiting for us consumers and businesses alike.
Examples:
Our Government has already decided there needs
to be more cash available to the public in 1999 and that businesses are going to
need protection from Y2K litigation suits.
The Warner Bros Y2K movie that takes a single
characters point of view approach will add to the pool of
"awareness" like a light rain shower. People don't take
Hollywood seriously but it should be an entertaining movie based on theory and
conjecture.
What ever you do, don't go into hock up to your
eye balls thinking that chaos will keep the creditors away and records will be
lost forever allowing you to keep your new purchases for free as a result.
It's true billing will be delayed for a period of time but once its back on
track the bills will once again start showing up. Best advice I've read is
pay as many debts off as you can. This allows more freedom of movement and
puts you in better shape to take advantage of great deals that may result from
business hardships. Keep in mind that many of us are at risk of losing our
jobs if the companies we work for are negatively impacted because of Y2K non
compliance or from third party failures. Creditors won't care what the
circumstances are, they have a job to do and you a responsibility. The
less you owe the easier it will be to handle a recession and unemployment.
And don't even count on unemployment because the government systems will be a
mess. Cover your bases just in case and try and position yourself
financially as best you can.
It looks like we're in for a lot of surprises as
computers and embedded chips everywhere take a vacation to Fantasy Island.
But this time Tattoo will not be announcing the plane's arrival because in all
likelihood the island will be a 'no fly zone' and because the charter service is
not compliant in time, Lloyd's of London will have to cancel their flight
insurance!
EXTRA EXTRA READ ALL ABOUT IT !
! !
Russia's economic and political collapse mirrors Y2K predicted scenarios !
A Look Into A Russian Mirror or A Look Into
Our Own:
I could not help but notice the stark
similarities recently between Russia's current crisis and our Y2K predicted
scenarios. Difference being those people have dealt with hardships
before and know how to take care of themselves in desperate times of crisis.
Here in the states most people today have never had to go with out and always
have had access to a grocery store stocked with plenty of food and always had
public services available.
1) Y2K U.S.A. SCENARIO: Various
states in better shape and more compliant take the reigns of power to fill the
void in Washington, crippled by massive failure of mission critical systems.
Local officials help set up barter stores whereby those caught unprepared can
exchange medical supplies, coffee, soda, wood, paper goods...for food.
This effort is to help the unprepared who might otherwise turn to crime to help
feed their families.
1a) Currently happening in Russia:
Various regions of Russia are taking their reigns of power in hand to fill the
void. Local Governments have created a barter bank where people can swap
timber or cardboard for food. Macaroni is being manufactured by other
local officials to help feed the hungry.
2) Y2K U.S.A. SCENARIO: State of
Emergencies are declared on a state by state basis enacted by concerned local
officials trying to protect their citizens from looters, a deepening economic
crisis and price gouging on essential goods badly needed by many with little
cash.
2a) Currently happening in Russia: A
paralyzed Federal Russian Government is quickly loosing authority over vast
regions of the nation. Local governments are taking what ever steps are
necessary to protect their people from a deepening economic crisis. They
have declared a State of Emergency to halt rising prices as the ruble looses
value. These independent actions may be illegal under current Russian
constitution but local government officials feel their actions are warranted as
they remain determined to prevent starvation in their regions. (Russia
claims to have plenty of grain stored up and says they will keep stores stocked
with bread...but at what cost to the people they don't say.)
3) Y2K U.S.A. SCENARIO: Survivalism
takes on new meaning for Americans as more and more are forced to become self
sufficient. Great-great grandmothers manual kitchen appliances are now in
serious demand as people cope with meal preparation with out the aid of
electricity. Old fashion methods for making bread, curing meat and storing
staple food items, which has become a lost art, aides those with the knowledge.
Once again fire becomes mans best friend to keep their families warm and cook
their food.
3a) Currently happening in Russia:
Russians are back on survivalist methods as their situation grows worse each
day. Falling back on Soviet era survival skills learned during decades of
hardships, people are forced to so such things as:
It is unfortunate that the progression of such
scenarios leads to social unrest and upheaval, food riots and eventually a
revolution. We here in the states need to keep this thought in mind as we
head towards the new millennium. Contingency planning is the best weapon
of defense. This has to happen on a world level as well as a national and
local level. History is like a broken record. If you don't take action to
avoid hardship then history will repeat itself, ugly as that may be. In
this case, simply removing the broken history record and replacing it with the
Y2K contingency record will make all the difference in the world, in our daily
lives and would be music to our ears. Although It may have to be a manual
crank RCA phonograph complete with audio horn! What ever works!
author: Mike Sheriffs
September 1998
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