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Y2K... 2 Be Or Not 2 Be
I am just a common computer systems
administrator for a telecommunications company. Time spent in the computer
industry so far is 18 years. I'd prefer to paint and write but never made
enough to pay rent so stuck with computers.
I have spent the entire summer
reading books, articles and documents on Y2K. My question at the moment as I
begin yet another article is: Where to start? Like Sgt. Friday I prefer the
facts. I also feel a need to add a bit of my own flavor here and there.
As it turns out I ended up full circle with embedded chips.
It is actually quite mind boggling
how far reaching this problem is. Over the hills and through the snow a
de-bugging we will go! Keep in mind this will be winter time, the worst
time of the year, for the Millennium bug to strike.
Regardless of a business situation,
even paper driven ones, everyone will be affected one way or the other.
The best way to describe what will likely happen when computers interpret a two
digit date code as 00 is utter confusion due to a calculation that shows an
incredible time lapse. Critical files will be lost at best or data will be
corrupted. Else computer systems will spit out erroneous garbage and or
hang and or crash and shutdown. Systems dealing with embedded chips (in
more gadgets and appliances and medical units and service industry machinery
than one can shake a keyboard at) will see this new date, make it's
calculation and end up with a date that makes no sense at all, freeze and
shutdown. Fault conditions will arise and control systems being fed their
confused output will panic thinking the chips are monitoring faulty
amps/volts/wattage/pressure/ flow rate and so on and shutdown...some power grids
included.
The reason embedded chips or PLC's
(embedded computer control systems) will become such a big issue is because
there are so many millions of them and no one knows where they all are. Consider
this: The "Power Grid" is fully entrenched with these chips.
What is this grid you ask? The three main players are: 1) Telecoms
or telecommunications industry, 2) Air Traffic Control, 3)
Utilities. These little critters even lie on the bottom of the ocean in oil
pipes. They tell the control computers on oil platforms the rate of flow,
pressure and other critical information. The cost per dive to replace them
is $100,000. If this process is interrupted by any faulty chips left
behind...well remember the oil embargo of '74?
Now lets say - hypothetically - we
get all 'known' embedded chips replaced that deal with a date code (not all do)
in the power grid and oil industry. First we should alert Guinness! Now
What? No one knows how many of these chips can be fix via software.
But the issue is the remainder of the chips that will have to be manually
replaced one by one. These have to be Y2K compliant and the old software
has to be loaded in successfully. Not all systems will be successful. Also
not all chips will be found until they fail and are discovered. Now what?
Testing. Oh! But wait! According to programmers, system
testing will take six months to a year if all goes well. If testing finds
more problems then you need more time to fix and retest. Hear the clock
ticking here?
Reality check: Many businesses
(number unknown at this time) and public services (by the way it is now known
that the most vital thing our government can do is to ensure that all public
services stay up and running) (I won't even bring up the dismal progress our
government agencies are making) won't be ready to test until sometime next year
and some won't make it at all. All 'mission critical' systems must be
ready now! But official business deadlines now in place are: Dec 98 / Mar 99 /
Apr 99. April 1999 is the deathline for everyone to be testing and running on
compliant systems or they will be out of luck. Why? Because at that
time there will no longer be enough time left to fix and test and there will be
no resources available to help.
A couple things come into play
here...ok a million things do but I don't have that much space to write this
article with.
The first issue concerning the
experts is the dreaded 'third party' break down or 'trigger effect' (of which
there are many). For one, our 'power grid' depends on third party
suppliers to provide their services and goods. Examples: How about coal
deliveries via railroads that have thrown away their manual systems for
computerized, non compliant systems. Switches will not work and trains may
find tracks in gridlock making deliveries late and causing power plants to cut
back on electrical out put...which leads to brown outs.
How about the telecom industry.
They are currently dependent upon third parties to deliver critical Y2K
compliant embedded chips and any delays or shortages will cause the industry to
miss their deadlines to be compliant. There are so many other services supplied
that create a life-blood system for big business all of whom worry because the
little companies are so vulnerable.
Here are a few survey comments from
inside the telecommunications arena:
AT&T: Wish we had more
time but we expect to be testing Jan 99. MCI & GTE both say they will be
adversely affected if their suppliers aren't Y2K compliant.
USWest: We will have a 'material
impact' if we go over budget to fix and test the bug or if we are not compliant
in time.
BC Communications: Who now
owns Ameritech, Pacific Bell & SW Bell seem to have enough money to fix
their bugs but admit it is a very complicated problem.
Bell Atlantic: We are dependent on
some suppliers being compliant. We will also be 'materially affected' by
the costs to fix and test in time.
Bell South: Confident to be
compliant in time.
It is believed that once third party
suppliers start failing so will some of the businesses that depend on them.
A second point in this matter of
compliance is what will develop in the business world as businesses become
compliant while others do not. Next year it will be called The Y2K Compliant
Fortress. It will be critical for a business to be in that fortress! Why?
It's only logical to assume that once a business spends a small fortune to get
their computer systems compliant, they are not going to want to risk
contamination via computer networking with other business systems who are not
compliant. The train of though here is that a non compliant system will
send corrupt data to a compliant system and turn it into a non compliant system
again. Do you see a line being drawn in the sand here? Well it gets much more
serious than that. While non compliant businesses scramble to get their
systems compliant so they can reconnect to the vital compliant business systems,
banks will be forced to cut off critically needed loans to them. Why?
Sept 8, 1997 A warning
is issued from G10 Basel Committee on banking supervision to the global banking
industry. "It is advised that bankers move decisively and immediately to
become compliant or face almost certain business death. For the purpose of
sound business DO NOT LEND TO NON COMPLIANT CUSTOMERS."
What this means to some businesses
falling behind is that they won't have to wait for 2000 to fail, they will fail
when they loose critically needed loans in 1999. The SEC painfully predicts a
56% failure rate among small business.
If you are wondering why our
government is keeping quiet while all this trouble brews while at the same time
other countries are warning their communities, the only thing anyone can figure
is they don't want to start a public panic. This they fear might create a
run on banks. This in turn will effect Wall Street who needs no help on
their roller coaster ride these days. Here is a good point I heard a while
ago. In the banking business, no news is bad news.
Now if you lived in Australia you
would be aware of some Y2K issues. There is even a government official who
if he gets his way and 2 million dollars, he is going to promote a TV ad
campaign to, "scare the pants off people". It's not likely though. In
Canada all the government Ministers and Deputy Ministers have received letters
making Y2K their top business priority. In England some announcements have
told businesses and the working class to prepare for some hard times and even
have gone so far as to tell them to buy guns to protect what they have until
things settle back down. Russia adheres to the old adage, why fix what is not
broken. So they will wait until 2000 to see what happens. I'm sure
some business will try to comply.
Japan is going through a financial
crisis and conversion and Y2K is not their priority. China has other
matters to deal with this year but is making progress. Asia is far too busy
trying not to go bankrupt to worry about Y2K. Actually Europe is very busy
reprogramming their banking computers to handle the new Euro currency and Y2K is
second priority. Banks in the U.S. also have this task at hand.
Keep in mind that the world banking
system and Wall Street (who also have a bug of their own to deal with called
D10K that will cause some computer problems when they try to roll over that
magic mark of 9999) depend on the telecommunications industry.
Here is an interesting note:
The Times reported that of the 1,100 computer industry executives world wide,
according to the Sept/Oct Gartner Group survey, 38% might withdraw their
personal assets from banks and investment companies just before 2000.
There are two things to keep an eye
on in 1999. The banking system and Wall Street. Two events may occur
very close to each other. When the public becomes "aware" (and
many things can cause this to happen such as):
1) Warner Bros new Y2K Time
Bomb movie (to be released late 1998)
2) JVIM (Jack Van Impe Ministries) Christian awareness productions, one of
which is being rushed into production/distribution this Sept on Y2K meltdown
3) The incredible amount of information available on the internet
4) Call in radio talk shows
5) Some
TV talk shows
6) Some computer magazines
7) Some media attention of events they can't hide
Now as the public becomes
"aware" of possibilities Y2K can cause several things are likely
depending on how scared they get. There may be shortages in the following
areas: storable food, heating supplies, water and fuel pumps, solar panels,
rural property, storage tanks, ammo and survival supplies. When people get
nervous enough and find out banks generally only keep 20% cash on hand they may
line up to get what they can of their savings. If this happens you will
see Wall Street take yet another dive of at least 30%. As investors become
"aware", which may be before the public, in which case Wall Street
will dive first then people will line up at banks, investors may trigger a run
by pulling out.
Do you see the ripple effect here?!
This two digit year date coding is the one straw that brings the house down
unless you get in there and replace it! I think the reason it was put off
for so long is because so many in charge were ignorant of the technical aspects,
the scope of the situation and the seriousness of its ramifications. Of
course we were all told that these systems would never be around by the turn of
the century. Yea right...and we were also told we would have flying cars
by now. Funny how it all came down to the all mighty dollar. The business
mentality seems to have been one of: Why spend money to replace computer
systems using old code that works when we can spend that money in R&D and
gain market advantage over our competitors. We will worry about this
little computer glitch down the road and then hire a computer nerd to write a
search program to go out and fix all the lines of code dealing with dates.
That should take all of a week. Well what do you know...everyone found out the
hard way that running a program was not possible. In order to write such a
program you have to know your code. No one seems to really know the code because
there was never any documentation for this coding in cobol back then. Now
there is nothing to translate the coding logic of those programmers. It's
anyone guess. It's a mess. There was never any process in place for
programmers to follow. They were told to make it work and they all wrote
code in their own personal way, and by personal I mean relating date codes to
such things as their girlfriends name or their dogs name. You want it
fixed you have to read millions of lines one at a time and make changes and test
and hope you don't end up finding more date related code no one knew existed.
The social security agency found this to be true earlier this year. After
announcing that they would be compliant in time they discovered 30 million more
lines of code that need fixing and testing. So much for them meeting their
deadline.
Geeze, this sounds familiar from the
embedded chips arena. No one ever documented where some of these millions
of chips went, what they were put in or what they controlled. Sure we know
where alot of them are, but on the opposite side of the coin alot of them are in
hiding and won't be discovered in time. Sounds like 'hide n' seek' to me but
with a serious twist and an immovable dead line. If it's one thing
businesses hate it's a dead line that can't be changed.
So what about air traffic control.
They have their hands full fixing coding and finding embedded chips like
everyone else. When their computers fail, the plane you are in being
watched on a radar screen along with dozens of others all in the same radius
suddenly disappear. That's scary. So what is their work around?
Reduce the air traffic and chart on paper. Part of the 50% reduction in
flights in 2000. This makes pilots nervous not to mention passengers.
This is why we may see a drastic reduction in holiday flying in December of
1999. Pilots have already gotten together and vowed not to fly into non
compliant airports. These will be called no fly zones and they will exist
world wide. We will even have one at the airport touted as the airport for
the 21st century believe it or not. That would be DIA folks. That's right!
It's pretty, impressive and has lots of computers running things and it's not
compliant. Seems they forgot to include that in their plans. I think
that will have a serious impact on the economy of Denver for a while. Time will
tell all and for once that saying will be right on time! 01/01/2000
Before I wrap this never ending
domino effect up, I'd like to mention a few things that add the cherry
(bomb) on top...and I like everyone else prays it never goes off.
A few utility companies have begun
testing. Here is the result from one such test. After fixing half the
system they rolled the date over and the security system shut down and locked
all the doors to the plant. After fixing that glitch they tried it again
and this time the other half of the plant shut down.
A water treatment plant tested not
long ago and when they rolled the date over the plant dumped raw sewage on a
beach when the tide was out.
The point is no one knows what will
happen when we go live in 2000. We might have had a better idea had we
started all this evaluation, inventory, resource allocation, maintenance and
testing in 1990 as some experts are saying it should have begun, in order to
accomplish this monumental task successfully. We are being told it is the
most monumental business management task ever faced! Although I don't
think the Amish or Mormons are much worried. And I don't hear anyone
fretting in the Pacific Islands either. Maybe that's why so many rich
cobol programmers are booking flights to retreat there or a few years until
things settle back down in the states. I'm half tempted myself but I don't
have their money. Had we not been so quick to throw away our manual systems.
I think they call that having a 'backup system' in the computer industry!
The following is based on a possible set of scenarios. One through four
with four being the worst case scenario. As I wrote this short New Years
Eve situation it carried me to four. I plan to rewrite the same story in
the other three scenarios and will do so from three to one in that order,
attached to other articles. Here now I let the writer side of me loose on
Y2K for the first time. Brace yourself.
New Years Eve 2000 - Scenario #4
The date is Dec 31, 1999. The time is 11:59 pm. Not as many people
are gathered together from afar because far too many people are scared to fly
for the first time in current aviation history. One of the busiest times
of the year for airports has left most terminals vacant and unusually quiet.
Many families and friends are using their phones as party lines to be together
for this turn of the century new years eve party. Earlier everyone watched
as Tokyo celebrated their new years eve right into darkness. No one
believes this could possibly happen in America.
Champagne glasses are filled to the rim and raised for the big moment. Party
hats are on, noise makers are in position and confetti is ready to fly at the
stroke of midnight. There is a hint of pessimism and concern in the air
but nothing will stop celebrations everywhere from being the biggest bashes ever
thrown in the good ole' US of A. All eyes are on the big screen TV's as
the famous ball drops in NYC Times Square filled to maximum capacity and beyond.
It's cold and snow is starting to fall but it does not even begin to put a
damper on elated emotions ready to greet the 21st century in style.
The count down begins but not everyone is counting. Some are too busy
biting their lips and praying nothing unusual happens as the mission critical
computer clock chips roll over to 00. "10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2,
1...HAPP--Y...lights begin to flicker in the room and the scene in Times Square
is much darker all of a sudden as the crowd begins to panic.
Champagne glasses everywhere crash onto the dance floors as eyes get bigger and
jaws drop open.
Screams begin to well up from the mass in the darkness and the announcers for
the gala event stutter and trip over their words as systems begin to fail all
around them. Static suddenly consumes TV's everywhere. People look
at each other in serious disbelief. A few look at their stopped digital
watches.
A satellite view of the United States shows one power grid after another
shutting down leaving the continent in total darkness.
The heating systems get quite leaving a chill on the parties that were so full
of life just minutes ago. People look out windows in hopes of seeing
lights on somewhere but shake their heads seeing total darkness.
Flashlights begin to slice through the darkness and lighters glow here and
there. Concerned parents gather their things and head for the parking lots
worried about their children at home. Cellular phones are flipped out in
haste in hopes of working to call for help but there the units cannot find any
service. The regular phones on tables and on walls have no dial tone. Car
keys chatter against cold door locks as nervous hands try to open them up as
quick as possible. Some fancy cars will not start. Those that do
start, tear out of the slippery parking lots under a veil of falling snow that
can only be seen in the headlights. Visibility is about fifty feet. The
roads are dark and unplowed. Cars are seen off the side of the road here
and there as the city draws closer according to the road signs.
Usually from the hills the city is very pretty in lights, but tonight it is a
black shadow if it can be seen at all. Intersections are dark and
dangerous.
You don't want to get hurt tonight. Hospitals have their hands full with
failing systems and resetting manual date coded systems where they can. Third
party blood deliveries are no where to be found and supply is critically low.
The emergency room is slowing filling up with walk-ins from looters injuries and
car accidents which are littering highways and byways everywhere. Panic is
brewing.
Gangs armed with guns and flashlights and torches begin to loot at will. The
police have called for a state of emergency and find themselves overwhelmed in a
hurry. Without phones the best they can do is keep radio contact and start in
the city first to try and get a grip on the ensuing chaos developing at a rapid
pace.
Keeping calm is mandatory but a struggle for most.
Some make it home safely and race inside to gather their loved ones together as
doors and windows are locked tight. Flashlights and blankets are put to
good use and families everywhere bow their heads and pray as the temperature
drops and America braces for her darkest hours. Our houses become caves
and the desperate become wandering primitive war parties in search of food and
supplies and God help those who can't protect themselves. History seems
to, for a period of time anyway, gone full circle. Maybe man got too smart
for his own good. Or maybe he got stupid after he allowed his computers to
do all his thinking for him.
In any case it's time to start over and rebuild with what we have to work with.
Time to learn from our painful lessons and avoid this again in Y3K!!!
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